UK government’s new Middle East policy ‘dependent’ on US election

International policy experts in London predict that the next UK government, led by Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, will have to deal with an “increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment” while also facing domestic pressures.

Britain’s trade relationship with Europe, Chinese tariffs on electric vehicles, the US presidential election and Israel’s war with Gaza – these are just some of the myriad foreign policy issues the new Labour government will have to grapple with.

The centre-left Labour Party won a landslide victory, winning 411 of the 650 seats in 10 constituencies that have yet to be declared, ending 14 years of Conservative rule that saw the Arab Spring, Brexit, the COVID pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war.

The outbreak of Israel’s latest war in the Gaza Strip in recent months has presented the UK government with one of its greatest challenges in the Middle East in years.

Throughout the nine-month war, outgoing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak expressed unwavering support for Israel’s brutal invasion, siding firmly with close ally the United States.

When the International Criminal Court (ICC) announced in May that it was seeking an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Sunak called it an “unhelpful move.”

Although Starmer has expressed similar support for an Israeli invasion on the pretext of “self-defence”, senior party MP David Lammy, who is tipped to be the next foreign secretary, recently said a Labour government would comply with an ICC arrest warrant for the Israeli prime minister, marking a small step forward from the Tories.

Lammy’s comments indicate the subtle differences that could emerge in Britain’s approach to the Middle East in the coming months.

Experts have noted that it is rare to see huge disparities in British foreign policy, even with a new party at the helm – barring reactions to sudden global events.

Professor Michael Cox, founding director (London School of Economics) of LSE Ideas and emeritus professor, explained that one reason for the absence from foreign policy was the change in the Labour Party leadership from Jeremy Corbyn to Starmer.

“Corbyn has made foreign policy a very clear position, which he has taken very clearly… He has had a very clear view on Nato and a very clear view on foreign policy,” Cox told the LSE Election Night event on Thursday.

Cox added that three external factors would influence Britain’s foreign policy in the coming year.

According to Cox, a trade deal with the European Union after the UK leaves in 2019, China and Russia “trying to change the world order” and the US presidential election in November “will have a huge impact on this country”.

Experts say the outcome of the US election, which pits President Joe Biden against former President Donald Trump, could have an impact on how a future Labour government deals with the situation in the Middle East.

Historically, Britain has followed Washington’s example in its Middle East policy and Cox expects the Starmer government to follow suit, even under pressure from the pro-Palestinian faction of the Labour Party.

However, if Donald Trump is re-elected, it could create “huge problems” for a Labour government that would have to adapt to Trump’s approach to the Middle East, given the Republican candidate’s staunchly pro-Israel stance and his past support for Israeli settlement expansion into the Palestinian territories.

“I think ultimately (Labor’s) policies will largely follow the Biden administration and that’s why the election in November is so important,” Cox said.

The impressive geopolitical outlook, combined with the UK’s pressing domestic issues such as the cost of living, the National Health Service and the housing crisis, will provide a “trade-off” for the new government, according to Professor Peter Trubowitz of LSE’s Department of International Relations.

Trubowitz described it as an attempt to balance the “intensification of geopolitics” with Britain’s “strong desire” to focus on domestic issues.

Trubowitz, director of the US Centre at the university, also warned that the US election result would be a key moment for the new Labour government.

Trubowitz said that if Trump is re-elected, US commitments abroad would change, leaving British officials isolated in the face of major crises such as the one in the Middle East.

Trump’s previous term saw the controversial U.S. withdrawal from major policies such as the Iran nuclear deal and the relocation of the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Trump has repeatedly threatened to withdraw funding for NATO and held a surprise meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

“I think we can say that Trump will oppose America’s international commitments,” Trubowitz said. “He will also complicate the special relationship,” he said, referring to the long-standing British-American ties.

“This election is a classic governance issue where you’re faced with an increasingly intense and increasingly dark geopolitical environment, but at the same time you’re faced with domestic pressures that you have to focus on,” Trubowitz said.