Assurant (AIZ) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Should You Buy?

Wall Street is expecting a year-over-year earnings decline on lower revenue when Assurant (AIZ) reports results for the quarter ended June 2021. While this widely-known consensus forecast is important for assessing the company’s earnings situation, a strong factor that could impact its stock price in the near term is how well actual results stack up to those estimates.

The earnings report, due on August 3, 2021, could help the stock rise if those key numbers come out better than expected. On the other hand, if they fall short of expectations, the stock could fall.

While the durability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will depend largely on management’s discussion of business conditions during the earnings conference call, it is worth assessing the likelihood of an upside earnings per share surprise.

Zacks Consensus Estimate

The insurer is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.49 per share in its upcoming report, which would represent a year-over-year change of -9.5%.

Revenue is expected to be $2.38 billion, down 2.7% from the same quarter last year.

Estimate revision trend

The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised down 4.06% over the past 30 days to current levels. This is essentially a reflection of how the analysts covering the aggregate have reassessed their initial estimates during this period.

Investors should note that the direction of each analyst’s estimate revisions may not always be reflected in the aggregate changes.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Whispers about earnings

Estimate revisions ahead of a company’s earnings release provide an indication of business conditions in the period in which the earnings are released. This knowledge is the basis for our proprietary Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) surprise prediction model.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a newer version of the Zacks Consensus EPS. The idea is that the analysts revising their estimates just before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and other contributors to the consensus had previously predicted.

So a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates a likely deviation of actual earnings from consensus estimates. However, the model’s predictive power is only significant for positive ESP readings.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination deliver a positive surprise almost 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually boosts the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

It’s important to remember that a negative Earnings ESP reading does not indicate an earnings miss. Our research shows that it’s difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How do the numbers look for Assurant?

For Assurant, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become optimistic about the company’s earnings prospects. This results in an Earnings ESP of +2.01%.

On the other hand, the company’s stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3.

So this combination indicates that Assurant will likely beat consensus earnings per share estimates.

Are the financial results surprising? Does history matter?

When calculating a company’s future earnings estimates, analysts often consider how well it matched previous consensus estimates. So it’s worth looking at a surprising story to assess its impact on the upcoming numbers.

For the last reported quarter, Assurant was expected to post earnings of $1.96 per share when it actually came to $2.47, representing a surprise of +26.02%.

The company has topped consensus earnings per share estimates three times over the last four quarters.

Summary

Beating or missing earnings may not be the only reason a stock goes up or down. Many stocks lose ground despite beating earnings because of other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help many stocks gain despite missing earnings.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations increases the odds of success. That’s why it’s worth checking a company’s Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly earnings release. Be sure to use our Earnings ESP Filter to discover the best stocks to buy or sell before they release.

Assurant seems like a compelling candidate for outperformance. However, investors should look at other factors when betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today you can download the 7 best stocks for the next 30 days. Click to get this free report

Assurant, Inc. (AIZ): Free Stock Analysis Report

To read this article on Zacks.com click here.