Experts react: Labour is back. Here’s what to expect from the UK’s new government.

After fourteen years, there has been a changing of the guard. The British Labour Party emerged victorious in Thursday’s general election, taking power for the first time since 2010. Incoming Prime Minister Keir Starmer will have to address the UK’s economic problems, but what other priorities will he have? What about the UK’s role on the world stage and its transatlantic and cross-channel relationships? Our experts answer these burning questions below.

Click to go to the expert’s reaction:

Philippe Dickinson: We can expect continuity in key foreign and defence policies

Livia Godaert: Beware of economic reforms and changing the distribution of power

Nicole Lawler: Britain will get closer (but not too close) to Europe

We can expect the main foreign and defence policies to continue

After fourteen years of Conservative rule, Labour’s one-word campaign slogan said it all: “Change.” But when it comes to the big issues of foreign and defense policy, “continuity” might be more appropriate.

Britain has been one of Ukraine’s strongest supporters since Russia’s illegal, full-scale invasion in 2022, and spends more on defence than any other European NATO member. These are issues of consensus in mainstream British politics. If anything, during the campaign, Labour and the Conservatives tried to outdo each other in the firmness of their support for Ukraine and the urgency of plans to increase defence spending to 2.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).

This is the heart of Starmer’s political project. When he became Labour leader in 2020, Starmer took over a party that had just suffered its worst election defeat since 1935 under Jeremy Corbyn, a pre-Tony Blair figure on the left of the party. Restoring Labour’s credibility on national security and defence was one of Starmer’s first priorities. He firmly declared Labour’s support for Nato – pointing out that Labour Foreign Secretary Ernest Bevin was one of the founding fathers of the alliance in 1949 – and recommitted himself to the UK’s nuclear deterrent (known as the “trident”).

This worldview permeates the party’s election manifesto, which describes its commitment to Trident as “absolute” and promises to apply a “NATO test to major defence programmes” to meet its commitments. The new government will conduct a Strategic Defence Review in its first year, setting out a path to spending 2.5 per cent of GDP on defence and ways in which a proposed EU-UK security pact could strengthen NATO. On Ukraine, the new government has pledged “steadfast” support. It has backed calls for frozen Russian assets to be reused for Ukraine and intends to play a “leading role in ensuring Ukraine has a clear path to NATO membership”.

There will be no time to waste for the new government. After six weeks of campaign talk, its first week in office coincides with the NATO summit in Washington — a perfect opportunity for the new prime minister to act on the international stage.

—Philippe Dickinson is Deputy Director of the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. He previously served on the Policy Team at the British Embassy in Washington.

Economic reforms and changes in the distribution of power are to be expected

Labour’s general election victory follows years of political instability and chaos. Analyzing the last few governments reads like a throwaway political satire, but the most important takeaway from the absolute thrashing the Conservatives have just received is that Labour now inherit an angry and impatient electorate ready to see their lives improved under a new government.

Starmer is not a particularly radical Labour leader. Under the former crown prosecutor, Labour pledged to maintain the status quo on tax rates and to reduce net migration – policies that are more conservative in ethos. Nevertheless, the party has set out a grand vision for the British economic future: the creation of Great British Energy (a publicly owned clean energy company), the renationalisation of the railways when contracts expire and the implementation of a new industrial strategy, to name a few key policies. These are lofty goals, but not impossible to achieve with the mandate Labour has been given. The previous government became entangled in its own machinations, leaving it directionless, and a Labour government must remain disciplined to achieve its ambitions.

There will be no major changes to foreign policy or defence. The UK will remain an active member of NATO and will push for defence spending to increase to 2.5 per cent of gross domestic product (as the Conservatives have also pledged). However, Labour has made it clear that closer relations with the EU are a priority. Another key difference from the Conservatives is that Labour’s manifesto pledges to push for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, with unrestricted access to aid for Gaza and recognition of a Palestinian state as part of a two-state solution and a future peace process with Israel.

Labour has also put forward proposals with constitutional implications for the UK. In its manifesto, Labour says it will reset the relationship between Westminster and the devolved governments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The manifesto also outlines a new Council of Nations and Regions, which would include the prime minister, the leaders of the devolved national governments and the mayors of the main regions in the UK. This shift in power – which would also be seen in changes to transport, jobs, planning and housing – is a move away from Westminster’s tight control of the regions and will be worth watching in the coming years.

The second area to watch is democratic representation, contrasting with the illiberal movements seen in democracies in recent years. Labour is putting forward significant reforms to – and the eventual replacement of – the unelected House of Lords, as well as tougher rules on the conduct of ministers and members of parliament. Its manifesto also includes lowering the voting age to sixteen for all elections and fixing uneven voter ID requirements. This expansion of representation is a welcome development given the threats to democracy around the world, and the UK could lead the way on this issue if Labour succeeds in implementing this programme.

To be clear, this is a victory for Labour through rose-tinted glasses. The new government has an uphill battle ahead after the last few years of chaos. Its biggest challenge will be to maintain will and focus amid local and global crises. By tackling the current problems of the cost of living and the economy, Labour can win the trust of a weary electorate, and then embark on the major changes that the party campaigned on. But its members must fight off political distraction to do so.

—Livia Godaert is a non-resident researcher at the Atlantic Council European Centre.

Britain will get closer (but not too close) to Europe

Labour’s victory in this election sends a clear signal to the European Union (EU): the UK is ready to improve its relationship with Europe. How far the relationship between the two partners develops will depend on the ambitions of the Labour government and what the EU is prepared (or reluctant) to accept on trade. Although Labour has stated its intention to restore relations with Europe after eight years of strained ties resulting from Brexit, it has not been very specific about its objectives. If anything, Labour has been clear on the issue of NO rejoining the EU single market or customs union, or allowing the free movement of people between the UK and EU borders.

Despite this, Labour campaigned as the pro-business choice for the UK and is likely to seek to remove the remaining trade barriers with Europe in favour of small and medium-sized businesses in the UK. However, the EU is unlikely to accept these terms if it means the UK “picks and chooses” access to its single market. This poses a problem for Labour’s intentions to reconsider the Brexit deal, which Starmer has previously described as “bungled”. With little willingness to renegotiate a Brexit trade deal, the EU will not accept any new deal without some concessions. The EU is likely to press for free movement of people (particularly the youth mobility scheme) as a quid pro quo. It will be important for a Labour government to find the right balance in its trade relationship with the EU, which remains the UK’s largest trading partner. At the very least, Labour has agreed to recognise some professional qualifications and negotiate a veterinary agreement with the EU to avoid additional checks on animal products, which could be mutually beneficial. However, the latter option would inevitably require at least some level of oversight by the European Court of Justice, which Conservatives argue could “solve” Brexit and undermine British sovereignty.

If the UK wants to build trust and make the EU-UK relationship more productive, it will need to look beyond trade deals and market access. Labour’s plans for a joint EU-UK defence pact, which would formalise bilateral security cooperation, could be a step in the right direction. If successful, it could open the door to further cooperation between the two partners, particularly at a time when Europe is becoming increasingly isolated under geopolitical pressures.

—Nicole Lawler is Deputy Director of the Atlantic Council’s European Centre.

We can expect the main foreign and defence policies to continue

Economic reforms and changes in the distribution of power are to be expected

Britain will get closer (but not too close) to Europe

Further reading