PREVIEW | Tour de France 2024 stage 9 – Gravel stage! Pogacar, Vingegaard, Evenepoel and Roglic fight to survive a dangerous day

The sectors have the following stars (based on the difficulty of the race itself), distance, and also the distance to the finish line at the end of the sector. The sector numbers below are represented by the race, not the profile above.

Sector 14 – 1 star. 2 km. 149 km left.

Sector 13 – 3 stars. 1.2 km. 131 km remaining.

Sector 12 – 2 stars. 1.5 km. 101 km remaining.

Sector 11 – 3 stars. 3.4 km. 90 km left.

Sector 10 – 3 stars. 4.2 km. 75.5 km remaining.

Sector 9 – 1 star. 2.2 km. 64.5 km remaining.

Sector 8 – 3 stars. 3.9 km. 54 km remaining.

After this point there will be no more climbing, but flat gravel roads. Less road difficulty, but a faster and more treacherous sector, with more important positioning. Sector 7 is right after the descent, but the last six sectors will be tightly packed.

Sector 7 – 1 star. 2.2 km. 44.5 km remaining.

Sector 6 – 1 star. 1.2 km. 32 km remaining.

Sector 5 – 1 star. 1.8 km. 28 km remaining.

Sector 4 – 1 star. 1.5 km. 22 km remaining.

Sector 3 – 1 star. 1.9 km. 19 km remaining.

Sector 2 – 2 stars. 2.2 km. 14 km remaining.

Sector 1 – 2 stars. 3 km. 6.5 km remaining.

Weather

No rain and a light wind from the southwest. The weather will not have a major impact on the day. Generally, there will be a crosswind for most of the day, but it will not be strong enough to affect the riders’ actions, I think.

Favorite

GC Battle – This is of course the main topic of the day. Many of the competitors have explored these routes for months before the race because they are aware of their importance and dangers. Strong climbers are rarely the best on paved and gravel roads, especially when they are flat. Racing on these roads, especially in the Tour, is a matter of raw power, positioning and technique, and a bit of luck… One of these four factors, positioning, will depend almost entirely on the quality of the team and experience on such terrain. If there are crashes or punctures during the race, the race will not be over. This is why many say the Tour will not be won here, but some may lose it.

Some, like Primoz Roglicare also well aware of what it’s like to crash in the first week of the Tour on those tense days. All the GC riders and stage contenders will want to enter each sector in the best possible position, and there simply isn’t room for everyone. It’s fair to say Roglic just wants to save the day. Remco Evenepoel He wants to save the day, but if he survives, I wouldn’t be surprised if he attacked at the end of the day, because that’s where he has an advantage over some of his rivals.

Tadej Pogacar Initially he was a rider I had no doubt would attack, but the more I think about it, the less I believe it. UAE, in my opinion, has been doing badly in this Tour, putting him on flat stages and in some cases completely absent even at key moments, such as when the 50-rider peloton broke away on stage 6 and Pogacar was the only rider on the team. It is up to Nils Politt and Tim Wellens to put him at the front of these sectors, but I don’t have much confidence. Juan Ayuso, Joao Almeida AND Adam Yates They certainly don’t have the skills needed to do the job and I can honestly say that at least one or two will lose a lot of time that day because they will have little support in terms of positioning and will have to race alone.

But the main reason I think Pogacar’s attack is not very likely is that Visma simply looks so strong. Pogacar will not attack an isolated Jonas Vingegaard like in the mountains, but a team that includes Wout van Aert, Christophe Laporte, Matteo Jorgenson, Tiesj Benoot AND Jan Tratnik. The team, which specializes in the classics, will work to set it up in each sector and will work to restore attacks in the last kilometers. The last hours of the race will have gravel, but I remind you that they are completely flat, having a team is of great importance.

I’d say Carlos Rodriguez will be well protected by INEOS, while motorcyclists like Egan Bernal, Derek Gee AND Pello Bilbao can also climb the ranks, given team support, raw power and off-road experience. Riders like Mikel Landa, Santiago Buitrago, Felix Gall, Jai Hindley AND Enric Mas are in a particularly delicate situation and will be happy to maintain their position – apart from the UAE players I mentioned earlier.

The rest of the field can be divided into riders who have to work for their team and riders who won’t. Alpecin will have complete freedom and a very dangerous duo in Mathieu van der Poel AND Jasper Phillipsen in pursuit of a stage win. Jasper Stuyven he may be free to chase him for Lidl-Trek if he has a good day; Stefan Kung will be a free card for Groupama and I wouldn’t exclude cyclists like Valentin Madouas AND Romain Gregoire; Matej Mohoric The Gravel World Champion will certainly be aiming for victory; Alberto Bettiol AND Stephan Bissegger strong riders for EF; Uno-X have Jonas Abrahamsen, Rasmus Tiller AND Alexander Kristoff who can cope well on such a day.

Several other high quality riders, for example Oier Lazkano AND Oliver Naesen will be lieutenants for their GC riders, I believe they don’t have much chance. But we have some sprinters/classics who can also do very well here and fight for the win, such as Arnaud De Lie (With Victor Campenaerts very dangerous also for Lotto Dstny) and David Ballerini. Binyam Girmay AND Michael Matthews there are also riders who can do quite well on such a day.

Tour de France 2024 forecast, stage 9:

***Mathieu van der Poel, Arnaud De Lie
** Jasper Philipsen, Matej Mohoric, Jonas Abrahamsen, Victor Campenaerts
* Tadej Pogacar, Wout van Aert, Remco Evenepoel, Tom Pidcock, Jasper Stuyven, Stefan Küng, Stefan Bissegger, Davide Ballerini, Biniam Girmay

To choose:Arnaud de Lie

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