Solar Progress in Africa: The New Frontier of Solar Energy?

Africa is a gold mine, both literally and figuratively. Providing essential resources for the global clean energy transformation, Africa also has huge potential for renewable energy development. By 2023, the continent will have installed 62.11 GW of renewable energy capacity, a number that could grow significantly with more funding.

Africa as a continent – ​​and indeed most African countries – has a larger practical PV potential than China (3.88 kWh/kWp/d), Japan, the UK and the world average (4.19 kWh/kWp/d). Therefore, Africa is – in principle – the best field for developing more solar energy. In this blog, we explore Africa’s progress in solar energy and its prospects as the next frontier of solar energy.

The huge untapped potential of solar energy

The African continent boasts a huge potential for wind, solar, hydro and geothermal energy resources. Central and Southern Africa are rich in minerals necessary for the production of electric batteries, wind turbines and other low-emission technologies. According to IRENA’s Renewable Energy Market Analysis, Africa has a technical photovoltaic potential of 7,900 GW. In addition, the continent has significant potential for hydropower (1,753 GW) and wind power (461 GW). Parts of Africa also have geothermal and modern bioenergy potential. However, Africa’s solar potential stands out as truly extraordinary.

According to World Bank data analyzed by Statista, Africa has the largest solar energy potential in the world. It is the only region to exceed the metric indicating “excellent conditions for solar energy.” Africa’s 4.51 kWh/kWp/day beats Central and South America’s 4.48, while North America lags behind at 4.37. To put this in context, about 20 percent of the world’s population lives in 70 countries with “excellent conditions” for solar energy, exceeding 4.5 kWh/kWp/day. On a continental basis, only Africa’s countries combined exceed this threshold.

While this potential remains largely untapped in many of the continent’s less developed countries, the World Bank’s Global Solar Energy Atlas, whose data was analyzed by Statista, describes the potential of solar energy in Africa as a unique opportunity to provide affordable, reliable and sustainable electricity to those in desperate need of improved quality of life and economic opportunity.

What’s stopping the continent from harnessing its solar energy potential?

Finance remains a significant obstacle to Africa’s leadership in renewable energy, particularly in solar. Over the past two decades, Africa has received just 2 percent of global renewable energy investment, exacerbating significant regional disparities. Dependence on subsidies and aid has further complicated matters, as these sources often do not support optimal investments in technology or suppliers.

A 2021 report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), conducted in partnership with the World Bank and the World Economic Forum, finds that annual clean energy investments in emerging markets and developing economies must increase seven-fold by 2030 — from less than $150 billion in 2021 to more than $1 trillion — to put the world on track to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

Africa has about 60 percent of the world’s primary solar resources but accounts for only 1 percent of global solar power capacity. To achieve current energy and climate goals, the continent needs annual investments of $190 billion between 2026 and 2030, with two-thirds of this funding going to clean energy initiatives.

Solar energy in production

The World Bank, the International Energy Agency and other partners, including the United Nations, recently called on developed economies to increase support for the development of energy and renewable energy sectors in developing countries such as Africa.

North Africa

North Africa – comprising Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia and Sudan – is the continent’s largest energy market. Apart from Sudan, this region is characterised by significant socio-economic development, industrialisation and access to modern energy. With one of the highest solar potentials in the world, North Africa boasts an average annual solar radiation of over 2,000 kWh per square metre per year, with Egypt and Morocco being among the standout countries.

While investment needs to be more equitably distributed, most of it is currently concentrated in Morocco and Egypt. Morocco’s Noor solar project and Egypt’s Benban solar project are examples of the region’s active pursuit of solar energy. Morocco is particularly leading the way in becoming a solar powerhouse in the region. Last year, Morocco launched a renewable energy development project in the Western Sahara region, investing a whopping 20 billion dirhams ($1.95 billion). The country has also announced plans to increase investment to $1.4 billion per year from 2023 to 2027, with the goal of completing around 1.3 GW of renewable energy capacity each year during that period.

Morocco and Egypt are expected to add almost 35 GW of solar power by 2030. This effort is being spearheaded by a number of companies, including AMEA Power, ACWA Power, Scatec Egypt’s New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) and the Moroccan Sustainable Energy Agency (MASEN).

South Africa

Likewise, the lower half of the continent is also looking to tap into its vast solar potential, and South Africa is particularly unusual. A leader not just in the southern half of the continent but in Africa as a whole, South Africa had an energy capacity of about 7.8 GW, excluding residential solar, in 2023—roughly equal to the combined capacity of other African countries.

In 2023, South Africa installed 79 percent of all new solar capacity on the continent, adding almost 3 GWp of the total capacity of 3.75 GWp. For two consecutive years, 2022 and 2023, South Africa recorded the largest increase in solar installations in Africa’s history. Looking ahead, the country’s solar sector is poised for significant growth, with a projected market expansion of $3.74 billion between 2023 and 2028.

A continent in danger: investment needs to accelerate

Although Africa accounts for only 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions, it is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change. The continent faces challenges such as water shortages, falling food production, more extreme weather events and lower economic growth, leading to mass migration and regional instability.

A global “climate resilience” ranking of 136 countries by consulting firm Henley and Partners ranks eight African nations at the bottom. Africa suffers the effects of climate change largely because of emissions from wealthier nations, which rank higher on the resilience list. The United States, Germany and the United Kingdom are ranked as the most climate-resilient.

With nearly 675 million people in Africa—80 percent of them in sub-Saharan Africa—not having access to electricity, tapping the continent’s potential is key. Solar panel technology, at $995/kW, is the cheapest of all renewable technologies. South Africa and Egypt have the largest solar capacities, followed by Algeria. According to the World Bank, mini-solar grids could provide high-quality, uninterrupted electricity to 380 million people by 2030.

While solar power has the potential to help Africa reduce emissions and expand access to electricity, the continent is still in the early stages of building its solar infrastructure. Africa’s solar resources grew by 13 percent from 2019 to 2020, and 9 percent of its total electricity now comes from renewable sources, mostly hydropower. Solar’s ​​journey into the mainstream has been slow, hampered by decades of hesitation in adopting new technologies.

This hesitation has forced many African countries to rely on carbon-intensive energy, spending up to six times more than their Paris Agreement commitments to subsidize fossil fuel use.

But the right policies and regulations can help lower the costs of developing solar energy, attract cheaper financing and encourage private investment. According to the World Bank, official development assistance will help solar energy become the most affordable energy source in the world in the next three years. Indeed, solar energy advances in Africa have the potential to become the next frontier for solar energy.

By Yash Singh