Global solar installations set to nearly quadruple by 2033 – pv magazine USA

July 8, 2024 Ryan Kennedy

Data and analytics firm Wood Mackenzie predicts that in less than a decade the world will multiply its total renewable energy capacity.

The company forecasts that 4.7 TW of DC solar capacity will be installed globally between 2024 and 2033, with China expected to contribute 50% of the total.

Solar and wind are expected to add 5.4 TW together over the period, bringing the global total to 8 TW. Energy storage capacity is expected to increase by more than 600%, with 1 TW expected to come online during the period.

“Global demand for renewable energy has reached unprecedented levels, driven by national policy goals, technological innovation and energy security concerns. Integrated energy technology solutions will continue to evolve, as evidenced by the significant increase in storage capacity growth despite inflation, grid constraints and permitting challenges,” said Luke Lewandowski, vice president of global renewable energy research at Wood Mackenzie.

The company forecasts 500 GW of new solar and wind capacity will be installed in 2023, and an average of 560 GW per year over the next 10 years. Solar is expected to account for 59% of global capacity added during that period.

In the first quarter, U.S. developers installed more solar in the first quarter of 2024 than in all of 2019. Installations in China rose 36% year over year, and new capacity in India by the first quarter was equivalent to 85% of total installed capacity in 2023. But the distributed solar boom in Europe has begun to fade, with residential installations in the first quarter shrinking by more than 30% in Germany and more than 50% in the Netherlands as retail rates fell.

“Ultra-low module prices boosted solar deployment in Europe and China last year and will continue to do so in the near future. However, grid constraints and a return to lower power prices, and consequently lower capture rates, will impact these markets and other regions,” said Juan Monge, principal analyst for distributed photovoltaics at Wood Mackenzie.

Monge added that maximizing solar power over the next 10 years will depend on additional technological advances, from expanding grid infrastructure to encouraging flexible solutions to electrifying transportation and heating.

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Drastic declines in solar module prices and tight interconnection deadlines have driven a 150% annual increase in global solar installations, Wood Mackenzie said. The company expects that growth curve to continue through 2026, when it could see a two-year slowdown due to an expected lull in development activity before the next round of planned orders that will drive larger deployments.

Meanwhile, the global energy storage market is on track to reach 159 GW/358 GWh by 2024. Looking ahead, 926 GW/2,789 GWh is predicted to be added between 2024 and 2033, an increase of 636%.

“This growth is just the beginning of the multi-TW market as policy support in the form of tax breaks and capacity and hybrid auctions accelerates storage builds across all regions,” said Anna Darmani, principal analyst, energy storage, Wood Mackenzie.