Industry Experts’ Insights on the Electric Bike Market

Nerd Collective is a collaboration between Ryan Atkinson, CEO and co-owner of Workstand, Matt Tucker, Director of Customer Development at Circana, Peter Woolery, Board Member of Bicycle Market Research, and Liam Donoghue, Senior Manager of Cycling Industry Research at PeopleForBikes. They meet monthly to develop data-driven insights into the cycling industry’s most pressing issues.

Electric bikes (e-bikes) have been the number one driver for the bike industry over the past five years. According to Circan, electric bikes accounted for 63% of the growth in all bike sales in dollar terms from 2019 to 2023, contributing 20% ​​of dollar sales and 4% of unit sales across the entire measured market in 2023.* Electric bikes are also the fastest-growing bike category in the independent bike dealer (IBD) e-commerce marketplace.** In this installment of our Nerd Collective blog series, our industry experts answer some questions about the electric bike category.

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Is the growth of electric bike popularity in the US slowing down?

There were some concerns at the beginning of 2024 that the e-bike growth curve was starting to slow. However, now that we have access to data from the second quarter of 2024, the decline in 2023 is starting to look like an anomaly due to the acceleration in sales in 2022. According to Circan, e-bike unit sales are up 13% year-to-date through April 2024 compared to the first four months of 2023.*

IBD’s Workstand e-commerce sales patterns also suggest that consumers continue to have a strong appetite for e-bike purchases. Year-over-year unit sales growth for e-bikes in April/May 2024 is strong at 60% compared to 2023, although slightly lower than the 69% growth rate seen during the same period between 2022 and 2023.**

This growth isn’t limited to e-bike sales—interest in and use of e-bikes also appears to be on the rise. A study by the Physical Activity Council found that in 2023, 19.4% of Americans who rode a bike at least once reported using an e-bike, up from 7.8% in 2021. The report is available for free to PeopleForBikes members in the Member Center and can be purchased on PeopleForBikes’ Resource Marketplace.

Are average selling prices of electric bikes falling?

According to Circan, the average selling price (ASP) of an e-bike in the specialty channel (IBD) is $3,055, compared to $669 in the rest of the market (ROM) channels (e.g., big box stores, sporting goods stores, etc.).* Furthermore, unit sales are growing faster in ROM channels than in IBD channels, suggesting that the number of occasional e-bike users is growing faster than enthusiast demand. While ASPs are stable or declining in both segments (ASPs were down 5% in 2023 vs. 2022 in IBD and flat in ROM*), upcoming tariff increases on imports from China could cause ASPs to rise again.

For used bikes, demand for low-end prices seems to be strong, while mid-to-high end prices are not as impressive. As shown below, the lowest inventory-to-sales ratio in 2024 through May was for e-bikes in the $200-$400 range, where the ratio was slightly above 1.0. This means that demand in these price ranges was strong enough to nearly outweigh new used bike listings. Above $400, the inventory-to-sales ratio gradually increases from 1.2 to 2.3 in the $1,000-$2,000 price range. Above that price, the inventory-to-sales ratio stabilizes at ~2.6. This trend suggests that high availability and discounts on e-bikes sold at retail and direct-to-consumer are driving down demand for similar bikes in the secondary market. Sellers who are willing to lower their prices to the range typical of mass-market e-bikes are seeing a greater match with ready buyers.***

For up-to-date used bike sales data, visit PeopleForBikes’ Business Intelligence Hub.

How willing are customers to buy electric bikes online?

According to Workstand, e-commerce e-bike sales growth outpaces the overall IBD channel.** While only about 2% of e-bikes sold by bike shops in Q1 2024 were sold online, the 45% compound annual growth rate indicates a possible shift in channel preferences for consumers. Given that nearly all e-bike sales tracked by Workstand are click-and-collect, bike shops can capitalize on this trend by capturing some of their sales online and driving foot traffic into brick-and-mortar stores. Click-and-collect offers both the convenience of online shopping and the peace of mind that comes from knowing that a local dealer is available to provide support.

Not only are customers eager to buy e-bikes online, but they are also eager to buy used. According to Bicycle Market Research, e-bikes have the lowest inventory-to-sale ratio of all bike categories, indicating strong demand.*** Additionally, growth in used e-bike sales is outpacing growth in used traditional bike sales.

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*Based on Circana/Retail Tracking Services, US Cycling POS Monthly

**Based on IBD Workstand e-commerce sales data

***Based on Bicycle Market Research data on peer-to-peer platforms (eBay, Craigslist, Facebook Marketplace, Mercari)