Comprehensive roadmap to strengthen long-term energy policy planning – IEA report

In the recent roadmap for long-term energy policy planning, particular emphasis was placed on the need for solid capacity development. Countries are encouraged to systematically collect energy statistics, in line with international methodologies and standards, such as the International Recommendations on Energy Statistics (IRES). This systematic collection provides a reliable data basis for energy policy planning and enables continuous improvement of energy data at national level. Cooperation with key data providers, such as national statistical offices, is crucial. These entities should actively participate in policy planning as data providers and trackers of policy impacts through established indicators.

One of the key aspects highlighted is the need for comprehensive energy supply and demand data. This includes data on energy production, imports, exports and inventories, as well as data on energy transformation processes such as electricity and heat production and oil refining. These data points are crucial to developing an accurate and effective energy system model.

The document emphasizes the importance of developing scenarios in energy policy planning. Scenarios help to present possible outcomes of different development alternatives, especially in assessing climate and energy policy measures. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines a scenario as a coherent, internally consistent, and plausible description of a possible future state of the world. This method helps decision-makers understand potential future conditions and make informed decisions.

Three main categories of scenarios have been identified: exploratory, normative, and predictive. Exploratory scenarios look at what might happen under certain conditions, normative scenarios focus on achieving certain goals, and predictive scenarios predict what will happen if certain events occur. For example, exploratory scenarios might explore the impact of developing 500 MW of renewable electricity capacity by 2040, while normative scenarios might explore pathways to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

The Roadmap also recommends strengthening scenario development by establishing a strong governance structure through a participatory process and coordination between all stakeholders. Extending the boundaries of scenarios to include the societal impacts of energy transition and innovation in the energy sector is crucial. It also emphasizes transparent and effective communication of results, especially in the context of international commitments such as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

To support energy modeling, the roadmap suggests using open source datasets. Platforms such as the World Bank’s Open Data and Analytics platform, the World Resources Institute’s Resource Watch platform, and the International Renewable Energy Agency’s (IRENA) Global Atlas for Renewable Energy provide valuable resources for policymakers and investors. These platforms offer access to energy-related datasets and resource maps, helping to develop comprehensive and informed energy policies.

Overall, the Action Plan provides a detailed framework for countries to enhance their capacity for long-term energy policy planning. By focusing on systematic data collection, scenario development and the use of open-source datasets, countries can develop sound energy policies that are informed, inclusive and aligned with both national priorities and international commitments.

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