The battle for France’s future is just beginning

The left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front (NFP), has won the largest number of seats in the French National Assembly, preventing a feared landslide victory for the far-right National Rally (RN) in the general elections.

Sunday’s breakthrough victory for the left-wing alliance — previously deeply divided Socialists, Greens, Communists and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Unbowed — did not come easily. Since its launch last month, the NFP has been met with a barrage of vitriol from both centrist elites and the far right, and has been demonized as a threat to the future of the republic. The media environment has also been deeply hostile, and the discredited horseshoe theory — that the far right and far left are closer to each other than either is to the political center — has dominated discourse surrounding the election.

Marine Le Pen and her protégé, RN president Jordan Bardella, spent the weeks leading up to the election trying to complete their party’s rebranding as the new “centre-right” and present the NFP as the true “extremists”. The left-wing alliance, and Mélenchon in particular, have been accused of anti-Semitism for their support of Palestine, while the RN – a party founded by a convicted Holocaust denier – has been transformed into a force against anti-Semitism because of its pro-Israel stance.

The whitewashing of the RN’s racist legacy and the demonisation of the NFP as an “anti-Semitic” party was so widespread that the dominant media narrative following the first round of elections on 30 June was that a victory of the left would be just as damaging, if not more so, than a victory of the far right.

With centrist President Emmanuel Macron having already blurred the line between the centre and the right in recent years by adopting a variety of right-coded authoritarian policies, conditions seemed ripe for the RN to complete its rehabilitation as a mainstream right-wing party and finally take control of the French parliament.

And despite polls predicting a clear victory for the RN, the French electorate once again rejected Le Pen’s far-right bid on Sunday, placing its trust in the left instead.

The NFP came first with 182 seats, followed by Macron’s centrist, neoliberal Ensemble party with 163. Le Pen and Bardella’s party, the RN, won only 143 seats, leaving it with no real chance of forming a government.

Election night was dramatic, with RN supporters in tears and many journalists covering the election clearly having difficulty understanding the results presented by the French. So where did it all go wrong for RN?

The nomination of the then 26-year-old Bardella for president in 2022 was the beginning of a new era for the RN. Bardella embodied many of the traits that excite the far right: youth, hypermasculinity, and immigrant background, combined with a hardline anti-immigration stance, reinforced by the usual “anti-woke” sleaze. He expertly promoted a far-right agenda, opposing abortion rights, spreading Islamophobia, and demonizing immigrants, while selling himself as mainstream. Most importantly, he tried to erase the party’s anti-Semitic history and neo-Nazi views common among its core base, offering unconditional support for Israel’s far-right government and its bloody war in Gaza. He exploited the centrist government’s shortcomings and authoritarian tendencies, portraying his party as mainstream and rapidly expanding its political influence. Macron’s flirtation with far-right policies, such as social media bans during protests, has greatly aided Bardella’s efforts to portray the movement he leads with Le Pen as representing mainstream patriotic populism.

His efforts to boost the party’s visibility led to the RN winning a crucial 31% of the vote in last month’s European Parliament elections, as well as the largest percentage of votes in the first round of national parliamentary elections that Macron called in response.

But as the second round of elections approached and an RN-led French government became a real possibility, the electorate made it clear that it did not want the far right, however normalized and media-trained, to take over the country. Moreover, by shifting its support to the left-wing coalition, it made it clear that it did not subscribe to the horseshoe theory or buy the narrative that criticizing Israel and its war on Gaza was anti-Semitic or hateful.

On Sunday, Mélenchon and his new allies from across the French left undoubtedly won a monumental victory. They showed that the left, with its uncompromising demands for meaningful reform and social justice, not centrist offers of “more of the same,” are the antidote to the far-right’s rise. But it’s premature to celebrate.

RN still managed to secure over 100 seats – more than ever before. The Left does not have the majority to form a government on its own, which means that political turmoil will follow in the near future. Once the government is formed, RN may not be in it, but it will certainly have a stronger voice in parliament. There is every reason to believe that the party will put up an even stronger resistance in future elections.

Nevertheless, the left still faces an important, unforgettable opportunity.

The French electorate has made it clear that it is tired of the centrist, ideologically ambiguous governance offered by Macron. It was the French president’s failure to fix the economy and the authoritarian policies that have normalized the far right that drove many French voters into the arms of the RN. Now that voters have rejected what the RN is offering, the left has a real chance to implement its program and chart a new path for France based on social justice, environmental concerns, and a foreign policy that is in line with the views and values of the French people.

The NFP’s program includes raising the monthly minimum wage, lowering the legal retirement age from 64 to 60, building one million new affordable homes over five years and freezing the prices of basic necessities such as food, energy and gas. The state would also cover all costs associated with children’s education, including meals, transport and extracurricular activities – all financed by taxing the wealthiest. The left-wing alliance also promised to stand in solidarity with the Palestinians and end the current French government’s habit of linking anti-Semitism with criticism of Israel and its far-right government.

Implementing this ambitious agenda could rebalance the French political system, act as a real, long-term counterforce to the far-right, and pave the way for a leftist future in a country that urgently needs to shake off Macron’s neoliberalism. As it stands, the left now has a clear mandate to lead, and let’s hope the center won’t prevent leftist forces from forming coalitions, allowing Mélenchon to lead France toward healing its internal divisions.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.