How will new leader Pezeshkian shape Iranian policy?

• Pezeshkian is an ‘advocate of a development-oriented discourse’ and his victory shows Iranians want ‘change and easing of sanctions’, says political analyst Mahdi Motahharnia
• According to Motahharnia, Iran’s foreign policy will remain unchanged and will continue to be shaped by Supreme Leader Khamenei.
• Pezeshkian to Push for ‘Balance’ in Iran’s Relations with West and East, Says Former Iranian Ambassador Abolfazl Zohrevand

Tehran, Iran

Masoud Pezeshkian, a seasoned reformer, will soon take office as Iran’s new president.

He defeated his conservative rival and former chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili by a large margin in Friday’s by-elections, paving the way for a surprise comeback for reformers after three years of conservative rule.

In the coming weeks, Pezeshkian’s presidency will be approved by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, followed by his official inauguration in parliament and the formation of a ministerial cabinet.

All eyes now turn to the new government’s policies, both at home and abroad, and how it intends to navigate the complex political landscape to push through the political, economic and social reforms that Pezeshkian promised during his campaign.

Speaking to supporters in Tehran on Sunday in his first meeting since his election, Pezeshkian offered close cooperation with parliament and the judiciary “to help survive the crises.”

He admitted that the road ahead was bumpy and promised to promote “dialogue, convergence and national unity.”

Cooperation with Parliament

One of Pezeshkian’s first challenges is to win approval from the conservative parliament for members of his cabinet, whom he sees as too liberal and Western-oriented.

Among those who actively supported his candidacy were former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and former Communications Minister Azari Jahromi.

Both served in former President Hassan Rouhani’s government and are unlikely to win parliamentary approval.

The same is true for Eshaq Jahangiri, who served as Rouhani’s first deputy.

Although Pezeshkian is open to cooperation with parliament, experts believe it will be a difficult task for the reformist government, especially when it comes to key policy issues.

“We saw this in the last years of Rouhani’s rule, when conservatives won parliamentary elections by a landslide and the reformist government clearly defined the boundaries,” Iranian political analyst Jawad Salimi told Anadolu.

In particular, he referred to the Law on Strategic Actions to Counteract Sanctions passed by parliament in December 2020, which calls for increasing uranium enrichment beyond the limit set in the 2015 nuclear deal.

Rouhani’s government, which invested heavily in the 2015 nuclear deal, was forced to implement the law despite its own reservations, much to the chagrin of conservatives.

“In the past year, the Rouhani government was not on the same page with the parliament, but that changed when Ebrahim Raisi took power in 2021. Now we can go back to square one,” Salimi said.

Iran is currently enriching uranium to 60%, a level significantly higher than the 3.67% it agreed to under the 2015 deal, blaming the U.S. for violating its obligations under the accord.

The issue has become a source of tension in recent years between Tehran and the UN nuclear agency, which has frequently admonished Iran in its reports and passed resolutions against it.

Engagement in the world

The return of a reformist government in Tehran has raised hopes that talks on the 2015 nuclear deal, which had been on hold for some time, could be resumed.

During his campaign, Pezeshkian stressed the importance of reviving the nuclear deal and strongly opposed arguments against it, citing the example of the Raisi administration, which sought to revive it.

He said his foreign policy would be based on the principles of “dignity, wisdom and purpose”, citing Ayatollah Khamenei’s “general principles”.

He also advocated for Iran to cooperate with the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), the Paris-based financial watchdog, in resolving the country’s economic problems and linking it to global trade.

Mahdi Motahharnia, a political analyst and academic, described Pezeshkian as a “supporter of a development-oriented discourse” in contrast to Jalili’s “revolution-oriented discourse.”

In an interview with Anadolu news agency, he said the reformists’ victory in the presidential election demonstrated the Iranian people’s “desire for change and easing of sanctions,” adding that the country’s overall foreign policy would remain unchanged and would continue to be shaped by the supreme leader’s directives.

Abolfazl Zohrevand, a lawmaker and former Iranian ambassador, said Pezeshkian favors opening a dialogue with the United States and Europe to lift sanctions, believing it is necessary to “revisit” the 2015 nuclear deal and discuss the issue with the UN nuclear agency.

He added that Pezeshkian also supports developing relations with Eastern countries, but emphasizes the “need for balance” in Iran’s foreign relations.

Experts say Pezeshkian will continue the previous administration’s policy of supporting Palestine and allied regional groups such as Hezbollah, which was reflected in a letter sent on Monday by the president-elect to the leader of the Lebanese group, Hassan Nasrallah.

Challenges at home

During the presidential debates, Pezeshkian said he would trust other branches of government to implement his domestic and foreign policies, claiming that no government in history “has been able to achieve growth and prosperity in a cage.”

One of the issues that was at the forefront of the debates was inflation. Pezeshkian argued that the main cause of the problem was the government taking money from people.

“Every time we agreed to negotiate with the world, inflation fell and the economic growth rate rose, and when we did not negotiate, the economic growth rate fell and the inflation rate rose,” he said in one of the debates.

According to Zohrevand, Pezeshkian prefers discussions aimed at protecting the lower economic strata from the effects of inflation.

“However, he has not yet presented a final plan, leaving the country waiting for concrete proposals,” he said, noting the lack of clarity in the new president’s economic concept.

Pezeshkian stressed the need to build trust between the government and society and engage economic experts in solving financial problems.

Motahharnia said Pezeshkian’s victory “heralds a positive outlook for the domestic financial landscape, as evidenced by the depreciation of foreign currencies against the rial and the upward trends in the stock market.”

He warned, however, that if the new president fails to demonstrate his effectiveness, combat corruption and break up economic mafias, the period of optimism will be short-lived.

Pezeshkian was categorically opposed to a parliamentary bill on an Islamic dress code during his presidential campaign, which irritated his conservative rivals.

He even took a stand against the “morality police”, known in Iran as “Gasht-e-Irshad”.

He also expressed strong opposition to internet filtering in Iran, arguing that many internet companies have been affected by these restrictions. However, he promised to lift the restrictions.

During the presidential debates, Pezeshkian called protests a “fundamental right” and said that if they were allowed to take place peacefully, people would not resort to rioting.

“Most of what we have seen or heard from Pezeshkian so far are emotional statements and promises. Now it is time to move on to action, to prove that he is a man of action,” Salimi said.

“It will be tested both at home and abroad.”

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