Revolutionizing Africa’s Energy Future: SPLAT-CMP Model and Continental Master Plan Report

The SPLAT-CMP model, an advanced framework developed by IRENA in collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), represents a significant step forward in planning a continental energy system for Africa. The model forms the basis of the African Continental Master Plan (CMP) for electricity generation and transmission, a flagship project adopted by the African Union as part of Agenda 2063. The CMP aims to create a unified African electricity grid by 2040, increasing energy access, reliability and sustainability across the continent.

The SPLAT-CMP model is an evolution of previous SPLAT models, incorporating state-of-the-art features to address the unique challenges of Africa’s diverse energy landscape. Each country is represented as a single node with different energy levels: primary (resources), secondary (power generation), tertiary (transmission) and final (distribution). This hierarchical structure enables detailed analysis of resource availability, conversion efficiency and electricity distribution, providing a comprehensive picture of each country’s energy system.

The model includes updates to better reflect the complexities of the real world. For example, fuel prices are differentiated by type and origin, and the model includes specific parameters for committed generation assets—those with financial close and certain future deployment. Candidate technologies for future generation capacity are also preloaded into the model, enabling scenario-based planning that takes into account construction times and financial parameters.

The first CMP exercise included three main analyses: demand forecasts, generation and cross-border transmission expansion, and network studies. Demand forecasts were developed using EViews, considering different scenarios from baseline to ambitious targets. These forecasts were the basis for the SPLAT-CMP model to identify cost-optimal solutions for new generation capacity, interconnections, and storage assets.

One of the critical features of the SPLAT-CMP model is its ability to cope with constraints and operational aspects of power systems. For example, it includes constraints such as planning reserve margins and limits on the penetration of variable renewable energy sources. Such features ensure that the model results are not only economically optimal but also technically feasible, taking into account practical aspects of grid operation and stability.

The model’s power generation updates include a detailed representation of different technologies, from solar and wind to hydro and thermal power plants. It incorporates data from the AfREP-hydro database to accurately model hydropower from reservoirs, and uses geospatial data to optimize the deployment of solar PV, CSP, onshore wind and offshore wind. These updates allow the SPLAT-CMP model to assess the potential and limitations of different renewable energy sources in Africa, promoting a balanced and sustainable energy mix.

Transmission planning is another key element of the SPLAT-CMP model. It assesses the technical and economic aspects of cross-border connections, taking into account factors such as line capacity, voltage levels and efficiency. This detailed analysis helps identify the most cost-effective routes for expanding the continent’s transmission network, facilitating the integration of regional power pools and increasing cross-border electricity trade.

The CMP initiative supports the African Single Electricity Market (AfSEM), launched in 2021 to create a continent-wide electricity market. The SPLAT-CMP model plays a key role in this effort, providing a solid analytical foundation for planning and decision-making. The involvement of regional power pools and international partners such as IRENA and IAEA ensures that the model is aligned with regional policies and uses global best practices.

In summary, the SPLAT-CMP model represents a significant advance in energy system planning for Africa. By integrating detailed data, advanced modeling techniques, and regional collaboration, it provides a powerful tool to achieve the continent’s ambitious energy goals. As Africa progresses towards a unified and sustainable energy grid, the SPLAT-CMP model will help guide this transformation, ensuring that energy development is both inclusive and resilient.

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