It’s France’s moment of truth. Here’s how its early elections are working and what’s next

PARIS — French voters face a crucial choice on Sunday in the second round of early parliamentary elections that could produce the country’s first far-right government since the Nazi occupation in World War II — or no majority at all.

Marine Le Pen’s nationalist, anti-immigration party, the National Rally, is poised to win a majority in parliament for the first time, but the outcome remains uncertain due to a complicated voting system and tactical maneuvering by political parties.

Voters in France and overseas territories can cast ballots for 501 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly, the lower and most important of France’s two houses of parliament. The remaining 76 races were won in the first round of voting.

The National Rally and its allies came in first in the first round, with about a third of the vote. A coalition of center-left, far-left and green parties called the New Popular Front came in second, well ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s struggling centrist alliance.

In the hectic week between the two rounds, more than 200 centrist and leftist candidates withdrew from the races to boost the chances of their moderate rivals and try to prevent the National Rally candidates from winning.

Recent polls suggest that this tactic may have hurt the far-right’s chances of winning an outright majority. But Le Pen’s party has broader and deeper support than ever before, and voters will decide.

Poll projections indicate that the National Assembly will most likely win the most seats in the next National Assembly, which would be a historic event.

If he wins an absolute majority of 289 seats, Macron is likely to name National Assembly President Jordan Bardella as France’s new prime minister. Bardella could then form a government, with he and Macron sharing power in a system known as “co-residency.”

If the party fails to win a majority but still has a large number of seats in parliament, Macron could still nominate Bardella, although the National Assembly could reject the proposal for fear of the government being rejected in a vote of no confidence.

Macron could also try to build a coalition with moderate politicians and possibly elect a prime minister from the centre-left.

If there is no party with a clear mandate to govern, Macron could appoint a government of experts not tied to political parties. Such a government would probably deal mainly with the day-to-day business of keeping France running.

The situation is complicated by the fact that each of these options would require parliamentary consent.

If political talks drag on too long due to the summer holidays and the Paris Olympics (July 26-August 11), Macron’s centrist government could maintain a transitional government until further decisions are made.

If the opposition forces win a majority, Macron will be forced to appoint a prime minister who belongs to this new majority. In this “cohabitation” the government will implement policies that differ from the president’s plan.

The modern French Republic has experienced cohabitation three times, the last under conservative President Jacques Chirac and Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin from 1997 to 2002.

The Prime Minister is accountable to Parliament, leads the government and presents draft laws.

The president is weakened in the country during cohabitation, but still has some powers in foreign policy, European affairs and defense, and is responsible for negotiating and ratifying international treaties. The president is also the commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces and holds the nuclear codes.

While this is not unusual in other European countries, modern France has never had a parliament without a dominant party.

That situation requires lawmakers to build consensus across parties to agree on government positions and legislation. France’s factional politics and deep divisions over taxes, immigration and Middle East policy make that particularly difficult.

That would likely thwart Macron’s promises to overhaul unemployment benefits or legalize life-ending procedures for the terminally ill, among other reforms. It could also make it harder to pass the budget.

Even though France has one of the world’s largest economies and is a major diplomatic and military power, many French voters struggle with inflation, low incomes and a sense that globalization is leaving them behind.

Le Pen’s party, which blames immigration for many of France’s problems, has tapped into voter frustration and built a broad online and grassroots following, especially in small towns and farming communities that see the Parisian political class as out of touch.

The National Assembly is the stronger of France’s two houses of parliament. It has the final say in lawmaking over the Senate, which is dominated by conservatives.

Macron has a presidential mandate until 2027 and has said he will not step down before the end of his term. But a weakened French president could complicate many issues on the international stage.

During previous cohabitations, defence and foreign policy were considered the informal domain of the president, who was usually able to find a compromise with the prime minister to allow France to speak with one voice abroad.

However, the current views of the far-right and left-wing coalition on these issues differ radically from Macron’s approach and are likely to become a subject of tension during a potential coalition.

Bardella said that as prime minister he would oppose sending French troops to Ukraine — a possibility Macron has not ruled out. Bardella also said he would refuse French deliveries of long-range missiles and other weapons capable of striking targets in Russia itself.

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In Paris, Angela Charlton contributed.

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