FTI Consulting predicts growth in online retail sales in the US

WASHINGTON, July 15, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — FTI Consulting, Inc. (NYSE: FCN) projects U.S. online retail sales will reach $1.2 trillion in 2024, up nearly 10% from a year ago, according to the firm. Online Retail Report 2024.

The company’s Retail & Consumer Products division, which conducted the analysis for the report, projects that U.S. e-commerce sales will account for 22.7% of the retail market share in 2024, up from 21.6% in 2023. Despite continued growth, e-commerce’s share of total retail sales is likely to decline from pre-COVID levels and plateau at about 35% by the middle of the next decade. Several product categories have already reached that level, including toys and hobbies, office supplies, consumer electronics, books and magazines, music and video, computer hardware and software, home furnishings, and sporting goods.

“E-commerce in the U.S. is maturing, returning to pre-pandemic normalcy but still taking market share, primarily from brick-and-mortar retailers,” said JD Wichser, senior managing director and leader of Retail & Consumer Products at FTI Consulting. “As the retail landscape continues to evolve, it is critical for companies to pivot their strategies toward omnichannel integration and technology innovation, while adapting to changing consumer demands, to maintain a competitive edge in a crowded field.”

E-commerce sales growth accounted for 46% of total retail sales growth in 2023, consistent with pre-COVID rates, and 57% in the first quarter of 2024, the highest rate since 2017, excluding the pandemic. The report projects that total U.S. e-commerce sales will not reach the mid-1990s average annual sales growth rate that they did for more than a decade before COVID, but will maintain high- to mid-single-digit sales growth for several years to come.

The report also highlights several trends to watch in the U.S. retail industry that demonstrate efforts to adapt to market changes. American retailers are moving their stores to fulfillment centers to optimize returns and inventory, managing store fleets by closing underperforming stores and reducing labor, connecting digital and in-store customer journeys, and using artificial intelligence to more closely engage with consumers.

“More and more retailers are creating personalized shopping experiences and promotions for consumers that incorporate Generative-AI content,” said Kurt Staelens, senior managing director, Retail & Consumer Products, FTI Consulting. “This type of personalization has the ability to attract and retain customers and encourage them to immerse themselves in the products they desire.”

Another trend covered in the report is the potential disruption of new entrants into the e-commerce market. Digital native retailers selling directly to consumers, which have gained popularity in the U.S. and internationally, have the potential to increase overall U.S. retail sales, and many analysts expect these platforms to take sales and market share primarily from high-value retailers, with less impact on existing e-commerce channels.

Read the full FTI Consulting report here.

About FTI Consulting
FTI Consulting, Inc. is a global business consulting firm dedicated to helping organizations manage change, mitigate risk, and resolve disputes: financial, legal, operational, political and regulatory, reputational, and transactional. With more than 8,000 employees located in 33 countries and territories, FTI Consulting professionals work closely with clients to anticipate, illuminate, and overcome complex business challenges and maximize opportunities. The firm generated $3.49 billion in revenue in fiscal 2023. In some jurisdictions, FTI Consulting services are provided through separate legal entities that are separately capitalized and independently managed. For more information, visit www.fticonsulting.com.

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