Prime Day spending expected to reach record $14 billion, Adobe reports

Online spending will hit a record $14 billion during Amazon Prime Day events on Tuesday and Wednesday as retailers across the e-commerce world join Amazon in offering deals, according to a forecast released today by Adobe.

Amazon’s Prime Day summer sale has become a key annual shopping holiday, with retailers from e-commerce giant Amazon to small independent brands offering big discounts over two days.

Adobe predicts this year’s Prime Day promotions will lead to record online spending, with sales up 10.5% year-over-year.

Growth to outpace 2023 and 2022 earnings

Adobe expects spending growth this year to far outpace last year’s 6.2% increase during Prime Day in July, as well as 8.5% growth in 2022.

Adobe, which bases its forecast on Adobe Analytics data collected from more than a trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, predicts that Internet users will spend $7.1 billion on Tuesday, July 16, and $6.9 billion on Wednesday, July 17, during the second Prime Day.

First-day sales are forecast to increase by 11.3% year-on-year, and second-day sales by 9.2%.

The first day is expected to be the biggest mobile shopping day of the year, with mobile purchases expected to reach $3.4 billion, representing a 48.4% share of sales compared to desktop purchases.

Adobe expects deeper discounts of between 9% and 22% this year. Electronics is expected to see the biggest discounts, 22% off list price, compared to 14% last year.

Other categories where discounts are much better this year include clothing (20% vs. 12%), home and furniture (17% vs. 9%), appliances (12% vs. 7%) and sporting goods (11% vs. 6%). Discounts on toys are up slightly, from 12% last year to 15% this year.

Adobe expects shoppers looking for back-to-school deals to drive sales this year. The company said it saw an uptick in online spending in early July, with online spending up 80% between July 1 and July 7 compared to daily sales levels in June.

Deloitte today announced that the 2024 Deloitte Back-to-School Survey found that cost-conscious parents are planning to shop early for back-to-school supplies to take advantage of July sales.

More than half of parents surveyed by Deloitte — 59% — said they believe the best deals come earlier in the season. Deloitte reported that parents expect to spend two-thirds of their total back-to-school spending by the end of July.

According to Adobe, consumers are expected to use buy now, pay later financing on each of the two days of Prime Day to make between $1.09 billion and $1.11 billion worth of purchases, up 18.1% on the first day and 19.6% on the second day.

Between Jan. 1 and June 30 of this year, consumers spent $502.9 billion online, up 7.4% from the same period in 2023, Adobe said. Adobe forecasts it will spend $229.1 billion between July 1 and the end of September.