A great year for the solar energy market at home and abroad | News

Spring 2024 Solar Industry Quarterly Report Highlights Significant Progress in 2023

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According to David Feldman, an analyst at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), 2023 was a year of historic proportions for the solar industry.

Four times a year, Feldman and a team of analysts and data experts from NREL and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) gather data for NREL’s Quarterly Solar Industry Update. The quarterly update series, now in its 15th year, has grown from a small report from NREL to DOE on what Feldman describes as a niche market at the time to a presentation on one of the fastest-growing clean energy sources in the United States and beyond.

“That’s an order of magnitude difference between when we started making analyst forecasts in 2009 and where we are now,” Feldman said. “Solar has gone from being a niche source of electricity to being a key player in the energy ecosystem, not just in the clean energy sector but in the energy sector as a whole.”

One element of the quarterly update that makes it such a critical component of NREL’s work is its use of publicly available industry data from a variety of sources that some stakeholders might otherwise have difficulty accessing.

Quarterly Solar Industry Update provides analysis, visualization, and contextualization of everything from photovoltaic (PV) module production and supply chains to electricity generation and end-use data. The 2023 data shows rapid growth both in the rearview mirror and on the horizon.

A quick look at the numbers

The Spring 2024 edition of the quarterly Solar Industry Update presents a comprehensive picture of what happened in solar energy markets in 2023 and what could happen between 2024 and 2050.

According to reports from the International Energy Agency, the number of photovoltaic installations worldwide has increased rapidly, reaching a capacity of 446 gigawatts of direct current (GW_{direct current}) connected. Analysts predict that globally by 2030, even five terawatts (TW)_{direct current}) PV can be installed and the output power is up to 15 TW_{direct current} PV could be installed by 2050. That’s 66% more generating capacity than all the electricity assets currently installed in the world combined. That amount of energy could simultaneously power about 200 LED light bulbs for every person on Earth.

Global annual PV capacity increases by country

China dominates the global solar PV market, accounting for about 60% of new installations, while the United States had the second-largest share of solar PV installations last year.

“Over the past 15 years, China has gone from being a leader in manufacturing to dominating many parts of the solar supply chain and becoming a key market for solar deployment,” Feldman said.

Annual Increases in U.S. Electricity Generation Capacity by Source

Domestic solar PV deployment in the U.S. grew faster than ever before, accounting for more than half of new electricity generation capacity in 2023, from 32-40 GW_{direct current} installed PV, depending on how installation dates are determined.

Another key piece of data showed that the recent decline in global module prices appeared to have stabilized, with prices holding at around 11 cents per W in the first quarter of 2024._{direct current}. However, in the United States, while average module prices fell about 5% in Q4 2023, they remained about 140% above global prices, at 31 cents per W._{direct current}.

Global Annual PV Shipments by Region

2023 was also a big year for PV manufacturing and shipping. Globally, shipments increased by 100% year-over-year compared to 2022, reaching about 564 GW of PV modules shipped, according to Solar PV Market Research. The United States also manufactured about 7 GW of PV modules last year. According to US Census data, the United States imported 55.6 GW_{direct current} modules, which means an 87 percent increase in imports from 2022.

“We’re at a historic point where, if you look at all the new electricity generation capacity across technologies that have come along since the beginning of the U.S. grid, solar, wind and batteries are being installed at record levels, and that’s a real game-changer for what the grid will look like in the future,” Feldman said.

How data influences decisions

Historically, the Quarterly Solar Industry Update has provided a detailed look at the state of the solar industry for both DOE and industry stakeholders such as grid planners and developers. Now, with NREL’s new dynamic data platform, readers can generate their own analyses and visualizations of data collected from the Quarterly Update, tailored to their specific needs.

This bar chart, based on data collected by NREL researchers, shows solar energy generation capacity in each U.S. state, broken down by type of solar energy.

“The conversation has moved from a one-way conversation to a format that allows stakeholders to communicate through data, analyzing long-term trends, and focusing on what matters to them,” said Jarett Zuboy, author of the update.

The Quarterly Solar Industry Report regularly provides detailed, publicly available information on solar energy, enabling stakeholders at every level, from small solar operators to state and federal entities, to better understand the current state and trends of the industry.

“It’s crucial to have a solid understanding of what’s going on because there’s a lot of noise,” Feldman said. “The decisions we make now will have long-term impacts on what happens in the future.”

Learn more about NREL energy analysis AND solar energy tests.