GUEST COMMENT Cross-border e-commerce retailers need to plan ahead to beat Q4 pressures and air freight price increases

As Marie Barrance, Sales Director at Asendia UK, writes, retailers can help keep overseas customers happy this Christmas by working closely with transport partners who are best placed to secure air cargo space.

As we head into the crucial Golden Quarter for retail, logistics experts predict a scramble for air cargo space will begin in September. E-commerce retailers with international customers should act now to get ahead of the rush and secure the best prices.

According to Air Cargo News: “The e-commerce boom, disruptions to shipping due to the Red Sea conflict and overall recovery in global manufacturing activity were largely responsible for higher air freight spot rates. Demand in the fourth quarter could result in dramatic price increases.”

Higher demand and tighter capacity in the air freight market could cause headaches, especially for companies looking to move shipments out of the Asia-Pacific region. Not only could inventory be held up en route to retail stores and e-commerce warehouses, but brands with cross-border customers could see their parcel deliveries threatened if space in airplane hold becomes tight and prices skyrocket. Demand in June, measured in gross weight, rose 13% year over year, continuing the growth seen in the first half of 2024. Air freight supply, by contrast, grew at the slowest pace in 2024, rising just 3% year over year, Xeneta said.

Plan ahead for peak international parcel deliveries
To avoid cross-border shipping disasters during the Christmas period, a solid peak strategy is essential. Online businesses need to plan well in advance with logistics partners to cope with the longer distances of international parcel deliveries. During this unpredictable and hectic season, there is a greater risk of transit delays and customs bottlenecks. As “middlemen” dealing directly with airlines, e-commerce parcel shipping specialists are preparing for a big challenge this year.

At Asendia, we are urging our retail customers to plan for peaks even earlier than usual so that we can secure the necessary air freight space for them.

For 3PLs, it pays to take a proactive approach that includes early wholesale service agreements with retail customers. These agreements are more than just a transaction; they are the foundation of a strong partnership based on transparency, shared goals, and meticulous preparation.

We encourage our retail and brand clients to share their marketing forecasts and strategies from late summer to early fall so we can adapt to their seasonal needs. We then create a customized “peak package” for each client, providing a strategic fit that not only streamlines operations but also provides a competitive advantage in an unpredictable marketplace.

Starting deliveries earlier not only optimises costs but also ensures on-time air freight, meeting the high demand for fast cross-border e-commerce deliveries during the festive period.

Efficient customs clearance
Aside from capacity shortages, customs bottlenecks can also ruin peak parcel delivery times, as we’ve all seen in previous years. It’s possible to avoid bottlenecks by ensuring all the necessary documentation is in order well in advance. Service-oriented logistics partners will advise on customs processes and pain points throughout the season. They will also have contingency plans and ideally be set up with an accredited Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) from HM Revenue & Customs, which will speed up and streamline export operations.

Be flexible and data-driven
Understanding demand patterns and market trends is key to successful peak season logistics. We encourage our retail clients to share historical data and market insights, which provides the basis for rigorous data analysis. Using advanced analytics, patterns, seasonal fluctuations, and emerging consumer preferences can be identified. This data-driven approach enables accurate forecasting, enabling companies to anticipate peak periods with ever greater precision.

Such foresight not only helps retailers better allocate resources, but also ensures that warehousing operations and 3PL negotiations with airlines are aligned with anticipated demand growth.

Real-time visibility
While forecasting sets the stage for peak season, real-time monitoring is key to dealing with unforeseen challenges once peak season begins.

Proactive 3PLs will support retailers with advanced tracking systems that offer real-time visibility into the cross-border supply chain. This enables rapid identification of potential disruptions, such as transit delays, customs clearance issues, or unexpected spikes in demand. The ability to resolve issues as they arise provides a proactive response, minimizing shipping delays. For example, if Dallas airport has a problem, switching to New York is a helpful alternative.

Time will tell whether the prediction of high air freight prices and a lack of cargo space is correct or not. But certainly, putting data at the forefront of peak season strategies can put retail brands in a strong position to ensure accurate forecasting, immediate problem resolution and continuous improvement year after year.

In an industry where flexibility and adaptability are key, strong relationships with the 3 logistics operators, supported by data-driven knowledge, will enable the industry to navigate the intricacies of peak season logistics with confidence and precision.

Marie Barrance, Sales Director at Asendia UK