Solar energy is expected to meet half of global electricity demand growth in 2024 and 2025

Global electricity demand is growing at its fastest rate in two decades, but solar power is expected to meet half of the increase in demand, according to the IEA.

According to the recently released Electricity Mid-Year Update from the International Energy Agency (IEA), global electricity demand is forecast to grow by about 4% in 2024, up from 2.5% in 2023. This would be the highest annual growth rate since 2007, excluding rebounds from the global financial crisis and the pandemic. Growth in global electricity consumption is expected to continue into 2025, with growth again reaching about 4%, according to the report.

Renewables are also set to expand rapidly this year and next, with their share of global electricity supply set to rise from 30% in 2023 to 35% in 2025. The amount of electricity generated by renewables worldwide is expected to surpass that generated by coal for the first time in 2025. Solar power alone is expected to meet about half of the growth in global electricity demand in 2024 and 2025 – with solar and wind combined accounting for as much as 75% of the increase.

Despite the rapid growth of renewables, global coal-fired power generation is unlikely to decline this year as demand picks up, especially in China and India, according to the report. As a result, global power sector CO2 emissions are plateauing, with a small increase in 2024 followed by a decline in 2025. But there are still uncertainties: China’s hydropower generation rebounded strongly in the first half of 2024 from its 2023 low. If this growth trend continues into the second half of 2024, it could curb coal-fired power generation and result in a small decline in global power sector emissions this year.

India’s energy demand is expected to grow as much as 8% this year, helped by strong economic activity and intense heatwaves. China is also expected to see demand rise by more than 6%, driven by strong activity in services and various industrial sectors, including clean energy.

In the second half of 2024, many regions experienced intense heat waves, which increased demand for air conditioning and strained energy systems.

After declining in 2023 due to mild weather, U.S. electricity demand is expected to rise 3% in 2024, driven by steady economic growth, rising demand for cooling and a growing data center sector. (The IEA report highlights a wide range of uncertainties surrounding data center electricity demand, including the pace of adoption, the diverse and emerging applications of artificial intelligence and the potential for energy efficiency improvements.)

The EU will see a more moderate improvement in electricity demand, with growth forecast at 1.7% after two consecutive years of decline due to the energy crisis.

Dave Jones, director of research at London-based renewable energy think tank Ember, said in response to the International Energy Agency’s Electricity Mid-Year Update:

We are moving rapidly towards an electric future because so much of the growth in energy demand is coming from electricity. Renewable energy has a dual role – not only replacing coal and gas plants – but also meeting that growth in electricity demand. That is why we need to build renewable energy at double the speed to ensure that power sector emissions fall as quickly as necessary.

Read more: China is building a giant 8 GW solar farm

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