Shipments of eSIM-enabled devices to reach 9 billion units by 2030

With the launch of the US-exclusive eSIM-only iPhone in 2022, the industry has passed a tipping point and is now entering a period of rapid growth.

Global shipments of xSIM-enabled devices will exceed 9 billion units between 2024 and 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% during the period, according to the latest eSIM Devices Market Outlook report from Counterpoint Technology Market Research. The forecast covers all form factors, including hardware eSIM (eUICC), iSIM (iUICC), nuSIM, and Soft SIM.

The industry has passed the tipping point with the US-exclusive release of the iPhone with eSIM in 2022 and is now entering a period of hypergrowth, as evidenced by the growing number of OEMs introducing eSIM-enabled devices. Currently, smartphones have the highest adoption rate of eSIM on the consumer side. However, categories such as connected cars, gateways and routers, and drones, where physical SIM cards can be very difficult to manage, can greatly benefit from eSIM or iSIM-based connectivity. In the long term, xSIM will become the default format for these industries.

The increasing adoption of this technology by global mobile network operators (MNOs) also supports this hypothesis. More than 400 operators now support eSIM services worldwide, enabling an average of more than 50 consumer devices.

“Key players in the ecosystem have started preparing for eSIM adoption beyond their flagship devices in the mid-range segments. The new eSIM-only iPad is another sign that the future belongs to eSIM. Other use cases like travel and roaming will also help significantly in increasing eSIM adoption in the near term,” said research analyst Siddhant Cally.

Counterpoint predicts that by 2030, iSIM-enabled devices will constitute a significant part of the cellular device ecosystem.

“It is still very early days for iSIM. However, we expect iSIM adoption to gain momentum in the next three years. The technology has the potential to improve device performance by reducing cost, size and complexity. This makes it ideal for use in a wide range of IoT applications, from smart home devices to industrial sensors,” said senior analyst Ankit Malhotra.