It’s hot, but there’s good climate news – San Diego Union-Tribune

What better time to highlight positive climate change than on the heels of the hottest day ever recorded on Earth?

Make it two days.

Last Sunday was likely the hottest global record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, an agency within the European Union. Then came Monday, with slightly warmer temperatures, according to the institution.

The news agency Axios put a twist on the events: The two warmest days came in the middle of the planet’s hottest year since at least pre-industrial times, and likely at least 100,000 years before that.

Not good. But there was some notable upbeat news last week, which was understandably overshadowed by dire reports of record heat.

The United States is reducing emissions of the greenhouse gases that cause global warming at its own record pace, according to projections released Tuesday.

By 2035, the country is on track to reduce emissions by 38% to 56% below 2005 levels, according to a study by Rhodium Group, an independent research firm that produces annual projections of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions under current federal and state policies.

This may be good, but it is not enough – at least in the context of the Paris Agreement.

Under a 2016 international treaty, the United States is supposed to achieve a 50 to 52 percent reduction by 2030. The country is not the only one that has failed to do so.

The main goal of the Paris Agreement is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels by 2100.

Global emissions rose 1.1 percent last year from 2022 levels and 1.5 percent from pre-pandemic levels, although that largely continues a 10-year plateau, according to Stanford University’s Dorr School of Sustainability. But it still hit a record high.

But progress should not be underestimated. In 2023, U.S. emissions were 18 percent lower than in 2005, according to the Rhodium study.

The U.S. cut emissions last year after two years of increases. But that fell short of climate goals set by the Biden administration.

Nevertheless, the study found that a range of government actions, especially those taken by President Joe Biden, have helped reduce emissions.

“Policies at all levels of government have never been more effective in achieving deeper emissions cuts, including passage of the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, a suite of federal regulations to reduce emissions, and ambitious state actions,” the report said.

The study notes that the projected cuts are expected “in the absence of any additional new measures.”

That suggests emissions cuts could improve even more — or not. The presidential election may have a lot to do with it.

Vice President Kamala Harris is likely to continue Biden’s efforts to reduce emissions. Former President Donald Trump rolled back environmental regulations and plans to do the same if he wins in November.

Uncertainty about climate policy is also influenced by whether Democrats or Republicans control Congress (one or both houses) as well as the Supreme Court.

“A significant portion of our projected economy-wide emissions reductions comes from regulation, which has drawn the ire of a conservative majority on the Supreme Court that is deeply skeptical of the administrative state,” the Rhodium study says.

Even with more aggressive emissions cuts—and they won’t be deep enough—the Earth’s temperature will continue to rise and wreak havoc. But for now, climate analysts are appreciating the moment.

“This is certainly not the level of decarbonization we were predicting a decade ago,” said Ben King, lead author of the study and deputy director of energy and climate at Rhodium Group.

Electric vehicles, wind and solar power are common and growing. Even with reduced government support, they are likely to continue their growth trajectory. Beyond that, it is unclear what Trump will do if elected.

A regulatory rollback seems certain, but after years of mocking electric vehicles, Trump has softened his tone and even softened it somewhat, as The New York Times recently noted.

Trump said, “I’m all for them,” adding, “I’ve driven them and they’re awesome.”

The Times noted that the change coincided with Trump’s growing friendliness toward Tesla billionaire CEO Elon Musk, who has announced he plans to donate $45 million a month to a pro-Trump super PAC.

Regardless, clean technology is becoming embedded in the economy, Shomik Dutta, co-founder of climate technology venture capital fund Overture, told The Washington Post. Market forces are accelerating decarbonization as alternative energy sources become cheaper, he added.

The ultimate goal in the fight against climate change is to achieve net-zero global greenhouse gas emissions. (That means that greenhouse gas emissions from anthropogenic sources are balanced by the removal of those gases.) That’s a long way off.

“The path to true net zero emissions will likely extend beyond our lifetimes,” Dutta said. “It’s very fair and encouraging that we can pause and celebrate great news.”

Indeed, because there is always what can happen tomorrow. Or the day after.

What did they say?

Jack Pitney, professor of political science at Claremont McKenna College (@jpitney) on X.

“Dear J.D. Vance: My education from grades K-12 came from the School Sisters of Notre Dame and the Sisters of St. Joseph. All these childless women thought they had a say in our country, and they were right.”

Originally published: July 28, 2024 at 5:00 AM