What options does Maduro have after Venezuela’s controversial presidential election?

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — The world’s democracies have almost unanimously condemned the results Venezuelan presidential election and called for a transparent vote count to confirm what the opposition calls a landslide victory over President Nicolás Maduro.

Two of Maduro’s closest allies – the leftist presidents of Brazil and Colombia – recently joined the chorus of countries, including the US, that have expressed deep concern Sunday’s presidential electionsin which Venezuelan electoral authorities announced that the president had won by seven points.

But Maduro has so far dug in, declaring victory, jailing opponents and threatening to arrest his rival, Edmundo González. The opposition says González crushed the self-proclaimed socialist leader in a vote by more than 2-to-1.

As electoral deadlock enters uncharted territory, Maduro presents several options:

Re-election

The window in which Maduro can withdraw is shrinking by the hour. The National Electoral Council has already declared him the official winner.

If he reconsiders his future, options range from resigning as president to ordering a rerun with international observers to ensure the vote is more credible. Any such development could only come from intensive negotiations with the opposition and the United States on a power-sharing agreement and protection from prosecution for Maduro and his allies.

But so far, Maduro has only redoubled his efforts. His government says it has arrested 700 people linked to the post-election violence. At least 11 people have been killed in demonstrations across the country.

“He’s hoping to wait it out and people will tire of the demonstrations,” said Cynthia Arnson, a distinguished fellow at the Wilson Center, a Washington think tank. “The problem is that the country is in a death spiral, and there’s no way the economy can recover without the legitimacy that comes with fair elections.”

No exit ramp

One major obstacle is that Maduro has a lot to lose from any political transition.

He is facing an investigation into the matter. human rights violations in the International Criminal Court over the repression of anti-government protests in 2014 and 2017. Meanwhile, the United States has offered a prize of $15 million for being arrested on drug trafficking charges.

Even if Maduro were willing to step down, many of his allies, including the military’s top brass, face criminal charges of their own and that could limit any negotiations.

“He probably thinks his base case for an exit option lands somewhere between a long stay in The Hague and hanging on a piano wire in Plaza Bolivar,” said Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez, a Venezuelan-born political analyst and founder of Aurora Macro Strategies, a geopolitical risk consultancy focused on emerging markets. “So his only option is to lock himself in a lie.”

Foreign Leverage

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been actively working to de-escalate the conflict, realizing that the stakes are not only for the ruling elite but also for the 29 million Venezuelans living in the country.

“Maduro knows very well that the more transparency there is, the greater the chances for peace in the governance of Venezuela,” he said this week.

Other leftists who have tried to curry favor with Maduro include Colombian President Gustavo Petro — a country that does a lot of trade with its neighbor — and Pablo Iglesias, one of the founders of the Spanish political party Podemos, a close ally of Maduro.

But the country with real leverage is the United States. Since Maduro’s last election, the U.S. has imposed a series of punitive oil sanctions, closed its embassy in Caracas and indicted Maduro and several of his top aides. For more than a year, the Biden administration has been slowly rolling back its so-called “maximum pressure” campaign in hopes that Maduro will open up more political space.

While the Biden administration has called for a thorough audit so Venezuelans can have confidence in the results, it has so far avoided accusing the government of outright fraud or calling Maduro’s victory illegitimate. But threats to arrest Gonzalez and his main supporter, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, could force the U.S. to shed its last shred of restraint.