Forecast: 2 growth stocks (under $100 billion) will join Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft as $1 trillion companies by 2040

Today, only seven public companies have a market capitalization of more than $1 trillion. From largest to smallest, members of this elite group include: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Saudi AramcoAND Meta Platforms.

More companies will undoubtedly reach the trillion-dollar mark as the global economy continues to grow. For example, Berkshire Hathaway AND Taiwanese semiconductors Nine other companies are valued at more than $800 billion today, and nine other companies are valued at more than $500 billion, making them in the near future.

However, I would like to make a somewhat aggressive prediction: despite today’s valuations of less than $100 billion, Online shop (STORE -6.43%) AND MercadoLibre (MELIA 10.59%) will be worth $1 trillion by 2040. The implications for shareholders are detailed below:

• Shopify is now worth $75 billion. To reach $1 trillion, the stock must rise 1,233%, implying annual returns of 19% over the next 15 years.
• MercadoLibre is currently worth $80 billion. To reach $1 trillion, the stock must rise 1,150%, implying annual returns of 18% over the next 15 years.

Here’s what investors need to know about these e-commerce giants.

1. Shopify Online Store

Shopify provides merchants with a turnkey commerce solution. Its software supports sales across physical and digital channels, including online marketplaces, social media, and direct-to-consumer websites. Shopify also provides related solutions for marketing, payments, and logistics, and the company recently introduced a generative AI assistant that can write product descriptions and create professional product images.

In August 2023, the research company Gartner recognized Shopify as a leader in digital commerce, citing its solid portfolio and rapid innovation. In May 2024, Forrester Research named Shopify a leader in business-to-business (B2B) commerce solutions, citing rapid innovation and the power of artificial intelligence. Shopify began adding B2B functionality to its advanced platform (Shopify Plus) about two years ago, so Forrester’s recognition is encouraging.

Shopify has a few more monetization levers to pull. It doesn’t currently charge for its generative AI assistant (Shopify Magic), nor for Shopify Audiences, a marketing tool that uses machine learning to build audience lists that can be used to target ad campaigns on Alphabet’s Google Search and YouTube, Facebook and Instagram Meta Platforms, Pinterestand TikTok.

Going forward, e-commerce software sales are expected to grow 15% by 2030, and B2B e-commerce sales are expected to grow 18% annually over the same period. However, Shopify may be growing faster than these numbers suggest. Shopify is the most popular e-commerce platform, and Shopify Plus is the most popular omni-channel commerce software, so Shopify merchants accounted for 10% and 6% of online retail sales in the U.S. and Western Europe last year, respectively.

Here’s the gist: Shopify could become a trillion-dollar company within 15 years if sales grow 19% annually through 2039 and the stock trades at 10 times sales. For comparison, that would be a small reduction from its current valuation of 10.2 times sales, which itself is a significant reduction from its three-year average of 17.1 times sales.

2. MercadoLibre

MercadoLibre operates the largest online marketplace in Latin America, measured by visitors and sales, and the company continues to gain market share. MercadoLibre will account for 29% of Latin America’s e-commerce retail sales in 2024, up nearly one percentage point from 2023 and four percentage points from 2020, according to eMarketer.

MercadoLibre’s success is partly due to its early-mover status, but the company has also built an ecosystem of ancillary services that make its marketplace more attractive. This includes fintech services like payment and credit card processing, logistics services like fulfillment and shipping, and advertising services. These adjacencies accelerate the network effect inherent to its business model.

MercadoLibre operates in 18 countries with a combined population of 516 million, meaning it serves a population that is about 50% larger than the U.S. However, the digital economy is much smaller. For example, e-commerce penetration in Latin America is about half that of the U.S. However, Latin America’s digital economy is growing rapidly. In fact, it is expected to double in size in the next three years.

“Latin America has transformed into a thriving hub for digital innovation, thanks to widespread internet access,” says eMarketer. MercadoLibre is ideally positioned to benefit from this transformation. Not only does it run the region’s leading e-commerce marketplace, it’s also the largest retail advertiser and one of the largest fintech companies in Latin America. To that end, Wall Street expects sales to grow 19% annually through 2027.

Here’s the gist: MercadoLibre could become a trillion-dollar company within 15 years if sales grow 18% annually through 2039 and the stock trades at 5 times sales. For comparison, that would be a small discount from its current valuation of 5.2 times sales, which is itself a discount from its three-year average of 6.6 times sales.

John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, a subsidiary of Amazon, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board. Suzanne Frey, CEO of Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board. Randi Zuckerberg, former chief market development officer and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister of Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board. Trevor Jennewine holds positions in Amazon, MercadoLibre, Nvidia, Pinterest, and Shopify. The Motley Fool holds positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, MercadoLibre, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, Pinterest, Shopify, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool recommends Gartner and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 call options on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 call options on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.