Safe Jobs, Uncertain Future: China’s Growing Demand for Government Employment

Last year, I attended a luncheon for graduates and their parents from a prestigious Chinese university. At the table, I asked three parents about their children’s career aspirations. To my surprise, two of them responded “考公” (kao gong) — indicating their children’s intention to take civil service exams and take up employment in the public sector.

This belief is not isolated. As I recently highlighted in South China Morning Post opinion article, the attractiveness of public-sector employment in China has reached its highest level in recent decades. The share of new graduates who prefer state-owned enterprises, government agencies or public institutions rose 22 percentage points, from 51 percent in 2019 to 73 percent in 2024. In contrast, interest in foreign-funded companies and private enterprises fell by a similar amount, from 46 percent to 26 percent.

This shift is not simply a matter of changing preferences; it reflects profound economic and social changes in China. The COVID-19 pandemic has severely affected service industries, traditionally the main employers of young people. Combined with increasing regulatory burdens, especially in high-tech industries, these factors—against the backdrop of an economic slowdown—have contributed to a record-high youth unemployment rate, which peaked at over 21 percent in 2023. In January 2024, the government released revised youth employment figures excluding students, which showed a decline to 14.9 percent in December 2023. Even with this revised figure, the youth unemployment rate remains alarmingly high—about three times higher than China’s overall unemployment rate of 5.1 percent.

In response to the economic downturn, a significant number of students are delaying their entry into the workforce by pursuing graduate studies. My alma mater, Fudan University, provides a striking example of this trend: Of the 3,226 undergraduates graduating in 2023, only 583 entered direct employment—a mere 18.7 percent of the cohort. Strikingly, the share of Fudan students opting to pursue advanced degrees at Chinese universities reached 53 percent, up 10 percentage points from 2019. Data from prestigious universities like Tsinghua and Beida confirm this pattern. Indeed, many universities have announced plans to extend the length of graduate programs for some majors to ease immediate employment pressures.

But whether they are graduates or undergraduates, students eventually have to face the job market, and they are increasingly turning to the public sector. The reasons are pragmatic: public sector jobs offer secure employment, decent pay, good benefits and perks, and a good work-life balance. This shift is being reinforced by the expansion of the public sector itself, with recruitment to the national civil service rising by 173 percent between 2019 and 2024.

The growing interest in the public sector also explains the rise in popularity of 法学 (to fax) directions. Although they are literally translated as “law studies”, to fax in China is broader, encompassing fields such as law, political science, sociology, ethnology, Marxism, and public security. For example, a person studying sociology can obtain to fax degree, which is actually a BA, not an LLB. According to recently published rankings of the most searched-for courses during the university entrance exam period, to fax in first place, while subjects such as international economics and international trade – which until recently were among the most popular – now rank 44th^t.

Transplanted from the former Soviet Union, to fax A Chinese education offers graduates a number of advantages in pursuing a career in the civil service. They are offered higher quotas on the national and provincial civil service exams. Their higher education equips them with skills that are key to various sections of the civil service exam, particularly in essay writing and material analysis, making them well-prepared candidates for civil service positions. For those who enter the police academy, the path to the public sector is even easier. After graduation, they can take the Public Security Joint Exam, which has a much higher acceptance rate than the national or provincial civil service exams. Police academy students can usually pass this exam, directly securing a stable civil service position upon graduation.

This trend in China mirrors changes seen in other emerging economies, such as India and Russia. Unlike those countries, where public-sector preferences have been a long-standing trend, the shift in China is more recent and dramatic. As talent rapidly flows toward government roles, this has the potential to hinder innovation and economic dynamism. Moreover, intense competition for scarce public-sector positions can lead to social tensions, as seen in Bangladesh, where a shift in the government job recruitment landscape sparked deadly student protests against the government. Worse, a surge in to fax majors raise questions about the future composition of China’s bureaucracy. A glut of graduates with law and political education could reinforce a security-oriented political structure, potentially steering the country toward a more authoritarian state.

In summary, while a strong public sector is essential, over-reliance on public sector employment and over-supply to fax majors could significantly change China’s future. For further elaboration on the above arguments, please see the article I mentioned earlier.