The Real Reasons Behind the Fall of Sheikh Hasina’s Government in Bangladesh and What It Means for India

After a long period of intense violence, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was forced not only to resign but also to flee Bangladesh. The country witnessed numerous student protests against the employment quota order.

But was the reservation issue the only reason for concern?

No, it was just an excuse.

Sheikh Hasina made some mistakes, but she was not the only one to blame. There is no denying the efforts of America and other powers to destabilize her government, exposing America’s double standards. The real intentions of these foreign powers in Bangladesh remain unclear. Sheikh Hasina has effectively kept Islamic extremists in check, while the forces that the US seems to support, such as Jamaat-e-Islami and BNP, are associated with Islamic extremism.

Like father, like daughter

The political landscape in Bangladesh left no room for opposition parties, reminiscent of what Sheikh Hasina’s father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, had done 50 years ago by establishing a single-party regime. This led to considerable uproar and a strong reaction from the people. Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was assassinated on August 15, 1975, just four years after the movement he led eventually led to the creation of Bangladesh, albeit with the help of India.

Sheikh Hasina has completed three terms in power and just won a fourth term earlier this year amidst considerable controversy surrounding the elections. Not leaving any space for the opposition or providing it with a level playing field was a significant shortcoming.

In India, too, there was speculation that Narendra Modi’s government would return to power with 350-400 seats — a brutal majority in the 543-seat Lok Sabha. But there were no irregularities in the election. People decided who they would vote for, and everyone accepted the result.

If you suppress people’s voices, eventually it will explode. That’s exactly what happened in Bangladesh.

READ ALSO ON ABP LIVE | ‘Bangladesh at risk of becoming Pakistan’: Sheikh Hasina’s son warns amid unrest

People’s anger did not erupt out of nowhere

It often happens that when leaders come to power, they are disconnected from the commotion and the voices at the ground level. This was also a major defeat for Sheikh Hasina.

When social upheaval occurs, it can overthrow a government. If a society reaches a boiling point, an outlet must be provided; otherwise, the pressure will eventually explode.

In Bangladesh, that boiling point has exploded, making it harder for Sheikh Hasina to maintain power. She tried to control the unrest, but it turned into revolution.

The request to end the reservation acted as a trigger, but it cannot be considered the sole reason for the violence. It served as a catalyst that brought other underlying issues to the fore.

We saw a similar pattern during the Arab Spring, with Arab society around the world reaching a boiling point, with no resolution in sight due to the prevalence of dictatorships.

The devastation caused by the Arab Spring has left many countries struggling to recover even after more than a decade. Libya, Tunisia, Syria, and Egypt are prime examples.

It all started with a Tunisian street vendor who set himself on fire after being harassed by officials. But that incident was just a trigger, not the heart of the matter.

In Bangladesh too, the issue of reservation has been significant, with protesters being barred from government jobs, which are restricted. However, the anger at Sheikh Hasina cannot be attributed solely to reservation.

Factors such as Islamic extremism, the machinations of its opponents, and foreign powers such as the US have all played a role. When the administration fails to address these issues, and the policies of the ruling party are unable to address them, the result is what we are witnessing.

Bangladesh’s future looks bleak, with political instability likely for some time. The country is already struggling economically and is under an IMF loan program.

Bangladesh’s main industry is textiles. In the current situation, instability will disrupt exports, which will lead to rising unemployment, halting investments and canceling contracts. Business cannot thrive in such an environment. The question is what kind of new government will be formed – whether it will be a caretaker government or a military government.

Will there be new elections? If so, what kind of government will come to power and what will its policies be? These are the questions on everyone’s minds.

READ ALSO ON ABP LIVE | ‘All murders will be investigated’: Key points of Bangladesh army chief’s speech after Hasina’s resignation

What this situation in Bangladesh means for India

Bangladesh is poised to face serious economic and political challenges that do not bode well for India. The nature of future diplomatic relations between India and Bangladesh remains uncertain.

India already manages two contentious fronts—with Pakistan and China. Any tension with Bangladesh will effectively open a third front.

The Sheikh Hasina administration has maintained friendly relations with India. Going forward, the Indian government must proceed cautiously to avoid steps that could create instability within the country’s borders.

The situation is worsening not only along our borders but also globally. India’s primary challenge now goes beyond creating jobs or achieving a $5 trillion economy; it is about ensuring the security of the country and its citizens.

In this context, the most urgent task of the government in the next four to five years will be to maintain internal stability and security. If this can be achieved, other positive changes will follow.

Stability will attract jobs, investment and economic growth. However, if India experiences internal instability, is hit by global instability or is embroiled in conflicts that strain its economy, its aspirations for economic prosperity will falter.

Sushant Sareen is a defence analyst and senior research fellow at Observer Research Foundation. This article first appeared in Hindi on ABP Live.