8,700 terawatt-hours of clean energy needed in 72 countries, including 20 in Asia

• Green Power Gap estimates that renewable energy will be needed by 2050 for these countries to meet global development and climate goals

• It presents four new pathways out of energy poverty that will help close the energy gap for 3.8 billion people. Africa, Asia, Latin AmericaAND Near East

BANGKOK, August 7, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — The Rockefeller Foundation released a new report today that calculates the “green energy supply gap” across 72 countries at 8,700 terawatt-hours (TWh). Africa, Asia, Latin America and Caribbeanand Near EastCurrently, these countries are home to 3.8 billion people and by 2050 they need to deploy 8,700 TWh of clean energy, which is about twice as much as United States’ annual energy production to enable the transition from more traditional, costly and inefficient energy systems to a future of energy abundance. The Green Energy Gap: Achieving an Energy Future for Everyone It also identifies a green window of opportunity and outlines four new paths to close the gap.

“The fate of 3.8 billion people and the planet itself will depend on whether we manage to close the green energy gap” said Dr. Rajiv J. ShahPresident of the Rockefeller Foundation“History clearly shows that people and countries will seek opportunity regardless of climate consequences. The only way to achieve the world’s climate goals is to scale solutions and mobilize the capital needed to provide 3.8 billion people with enough clean electricity to improve their lives and livelihoods.”

The 72 countries analyzed in the report represent 68 that fall below the Modern Energy Minimum (MEM), which is defined as average annual per capita consumption of less than 1,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) needed to lift people out of poverty, create jobs and drive economic growth. The report also includes four additional countries* that exceed the MEM threshold but are included in the “energy poor” category because a significant proportion of their populations still live well below the MEM.

Only eight of the 72 countries in Latin America & this Caribbean (Bolivia, El Salvador*, Guatemala, Haiti, HondurasAND Nicaragua) and Near East (Syria AND Yemen), Africa is home to 44 countries, 20 of which are in Asia.

Asia:

“While there is no universal answer to the question of a future of clean energy abundance, we believe there is a ‘green window of opportunity’ based on existing energy system resources and the availability of renewable energy sources in Asia, he said Deepali KhannaVice President and Regional Head of the Rockefeller Foundation Asia Office. “The countries of the region, especially India AND Indonesiaare already leading the way by deploying renewable energy technologies on an unprecedented scale.”

Calculating the Green Energy Gap
For the purposes of this report, the Rockefeller Foundation divided the 193 UN member countries into three categories: (1) “Developed Economies,” which are the 55 high-income countries as defined by the World Bank; (2) “Energy-Poor Countries,” which include the 68 energy-poor countries, plus the additional four* listed above; and (3) “Developing Economies,” which include the 66 countries in between (in this group, consumption has increased by almost 4,000 kWh per year over the past 50 years, compared to the “energy-poor” countries, which have increased by only 500 kWh).

The Green Power Gap is calculated by determining how much carbon dioxide the world can emit while keeping global temperatures below 1.75°C and taking into account population growth and development goals. It also assumes that 55 “advanced” and 66 “emerging” countries will achieve net-zero emissions in 2050 and 2060, respectively.

Based on these calculations, this scenario’s remaining carbon budget of 207 gigatonnes (GT) leaves significant room for growth for the 72 “energy-poor” countries. Focusing solely on the power sector, fossil energy generation could grow modestly in the short term, but green energy must become dominant in the longer term. For example, in 2030, about two-thirds of total generation could still come from fossil fuels in energy-poor countries. However, this share would need to fall to 30% by 2040, and net zero would need to be achieved by 2070.

Four Ways to Close the Gap
Achieving energy abundance will require a mix of technologies, but this mix will vary greatly depending on the resources and needs of each country. The existing assets of the energy system and the availability of renewable energy resources in each country will determine which type of green leapfrog opportunities are most cost-effective. Based on this, the report identifies four paths to clean energy abundance enabled by modern technology. These are:

1. Gradual greening of the grid: This path is suitable for countries such as India that have developed networks and significant centralized assets to produce fossil fuels.

2. Evolution of renewable energy sources in mixed networks: This path is suitable for countries such as Nigeria with limited network and production capacity, but higher population density.

3. Decentralized solar energy storage: This path is suitable for countries such as: Burkina Fasowhich have excellent solar energy resources, but where grid development and access to other renewable energy sources are limited.

4. Decentralized mix of renewable energy sources: This path is suitable for countries such as: democratic republic of Kongo with limited grid and generation assets, but with a diversity of high-quality renewable resources available.

“Closing the green energy gap is in every country’s interest” said Dr. Joseph CurtinManaging Director of the Rockefeller Foundation’s Energy and Climate Team and co-author of the report“In addition, these 72 countries have superior renewable resources compared to countries that are already deploying renewable energy on a large scale. So rather than following the path taken by many advanced economies, they have a green window of opportunity to leapfrog to cleaner, more agile and flexible energy systems.”

The Rockefeller Foundation intends to examine these divergent paths in more detail in future studies.

About the Rockefeller Foundation
The Rockefeller Foundation is a pioneering philanthropy built on partnerships at the intersection of science, technology, and innovation that enable individuals, families, and communities to flourish. We bet big on promoting human prosperity. Our current focus is on advancing human potential and reversing the climate crisis by transforming our food, health, energy, and financial systems. For more information, sign up for our newsletter at www.rockefellerfoundation.org/subscribe and follow us on X @RockefellerFdn and LI @the-rockefeller-foundation.

In addition to the Bellagio Conference Center, ItalyThe Rockefeller Foundation has offices in the U.S. New York AND Washingtonwith regional headquarters in Bangkok, Thailandfor his work in Asiaand another regional headquarters in Nairobi, Kenyafor activities throughout the African continent.

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SOURCE Rockefeller Foundation