Is there hope for Venezuela with Nicolás Maduro still in power?

Latin America’s left must make a decision on Venezuela: oppose or enable the totalitarian attempt by Nicolás Maduro to remain in power forever. Attempts to stop Maduro may fail. But giving in to him will destabilize neighboring countries—with consequences for the United States—undermine the left’s claim to respect for democracy and likely cost its leaders political support.

Maduro lost the July 28 election to opposition coalition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia by a margin of more than 2 to 1, according to an Associated Press review of about 80% of paper ballot results on Venezuelan voting machines provided by the opposition. But instead of conceding it, Maduro simply declared he had won and blamed Elon Musk’s unconfirmed cyberattack for his inability to prove it.

Maduro’s flagrant theft marks a dark new chapter in Venezuela’s history. Until July 28, the country was authoritarian with a patina of democracy, holding periodic, unfree, unfair elections. Now, knowing he doesn’t have the popular support to win even on an uneven playing field, Maduro is tearing down the facade and becoming completely totalitarian, surpassing even his previous repression.

Maduro’s government has arrested more than 2000 people without trial since election day; deployed Russian mercenaries from Wagner’s group, Cuban Secret Police and other forces; and promised to send critics to “re-education camps.” At least 24 people have been killed since election day.

Venezuela’s decline into authoritarianism and the accompanying economic crisis in the 2010s resulted in about 8 million Venezuelans forced to emigrate abroad, over half a million of whom came to the United States; fueling the internal armed conflict in Colombia by providing refuge for rebels on Venezuelan territory; and polarizing Latin American politics into pro- and anti-Venezuelan camps.

The move toward full-fledged totalitarianism could prove even more destabilizing. Pre-election polls suggested some 3.7 million additional people planned to migrate if Maduro remains entrenched. Given the multitude of armed groups in Venezuela and Maduro’s apparent lack of legitimacy, it’s not hard to imagine his government losing control as warring forces fight over territory.

Can anything stop Maduro? Barring an unlikely uprising among his security forces, further mass protests are unlikely to deter him. The United States could tighten sanctions, but Maduro and his inner circle already know how to live under them, forging ties with other outcast states in years of isolation dating back to the Trump administration.

If anyone has any influence outside the country, it is those often seen as friends of Maduro: the leftist presidents of Brazil, Mexico and Colombia.

These leaders have sometimes sided with Maduro, but more recently, Colombian Gustavo Petro and Brazilian Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva have been more critical of him. Even dissuaded the Maduro government With disqualifying opposition candidate González — as did opposition leader María Corina Machado and the first candidate elected to succeed her. Since the election, Petro and Lula have been joined by Mexican Andrés Manuel López Obrador demanding publication of voting results.

The three presidents are not pressing Maduro to respect the results and concede defeat, which would risk severing their ties with Venezuela’s ruling party and upsetting Maduro’s supporters in their own party. Given that Maduro threatened last year to move troops through Brazilian territory to invade Guyana, Lula may also be worried about what he might do if he were even more isolated and vindictive. But the presidents of Brazil and Colombia have publicly said they want to prevent mass bloodshed. Brazil also wants to prevent China and Russia, which were quick to notice Maduro’s “victory”, refrained from greater involvement in the hemisphere and an increase in geopolitical tensions, the daily O Globo reported.

Given their preference for behind-the-scenes diplomacy — and the risk of burning bridges by publicly criticizing the Venezuelan government — if the three leaders try to influence Maduro or his inner circle, they do so behind closed doors.

This could have a number of outcomes. Supporting another election with a weaker opposition figure on the ballot would mean propping up Maduro. If leftist leaders continue down this path, or simply do nothing as Maduro continues his repression, they will enable another exodus, more economic chaos, and further isolation, while discrediting themselves.

Pressing Maduro for a power-sharing deal and giving his opponents control of some government institutions — as the U.S. government envisioned in 2020 — could move Venezuela closer to democracy and increase the opposition’s influence. The alternative — the hope that mass protests will force security forces to break with Maduro — seems increasingly unlikely.

Petro, Lula and AMLO don’t have to be idealists to act. They should see parallels between what’s happening in Venezuela today and the repression the left experienced under their countries’ authoritarian regimes decades ago. But they also have their own reasons to get involved. Many of the voters and allies leftist leaders need to win elections and implement policies will be alienated if they ignore or embrace Maduro’s totalitarian turn.

Their response will also send an important signal about the health of their own democracies, which are home to nearly 60 percent of Latinos. The presidents of Colombia and Mexico are pushing for major institutional changes; Brazil’s president took office only after a failed coup. Critics of the governments in all three countries say, with varying degrees of evidence, that they will roll back democracy or are already doing so. Standing by while Maduro crushes his opponents won’t change anyone’s mind.

Hopes (including mine) that an overwhelming opposition victory would crack Maduro’s government and allow for a transition have not been fulfilled. If there is any hope for such an outcome now, it rests with Venezuela’s neighbors.

Will Freeman is a Latin America studies fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.