Australia’s survival in a warmer world will require a massive multi-tasking effort

To date, much of the climate debate in Australia has focused on actions to limit global warming, recognising that any increase in warming contributes to the worsening of extreme climate events.

In their recently released book Living Hot: Surviving and Thriving on a Heating Planet, authors Clive Hamilton and George Wilkenfeld argue that while emissions reductions should continue, Australia should focus its efforts on “adaptation,” or building resilience to the impacts of climate change.

Of course, Australia cannot ignore adaptation. Extreme weather events, caused by climate change, are repeatedly hitting much of the country – and some areas get little respite between disasters.

But Australia’s emissions reduction efforts must continue at speed, on a large scale. Real change is possible. It will require everything, everywhere, all at once.

Mixed Progress

The world is on track to warm by almost 3°C ​​above pre-industrial levels unless existing national emission reduction commitments are intensified.

Climate change is already causing more intense and frequent extreme weather events in the Asia-Pacific region, where Australia lives.

But the region’s progress on climate action has been mixed at best, leaving many countries struggling to adapt to their “new normal.”

Indonesia, for example, is moving its capital from sinking Jakarta to the new city of Nusantara – partly as part of efforts to adapt to climate change.

In Malaysia, researchers from Monash University are looking for new ways to educate citizens and adapt buildings to the demands of global warming.

Among high-income countries, Australia is one of the most vulnerable in a warmer world. We need to focus on both reducing emissions and fundamentally rethinking the way we live.

Mitigation and adaptation: two sides of the coin

If we prioritize reducing emissions and adapting to climate change, we can achieve double benefits.

Research from our organisation, the Climateworks Centre, shows how this applies to protecting ocean ecosystems around Indonesia, the world’s largest archipelagic nation.

Mangroves, with their strong root systems, help protect coastal communities and land from extreme weather events. They can also provide significant long-term carbon sinks or stores.

Protecting these important ocean ecosystems can strengthen Indonesia’s climate resilience and prevent more carbon from entering the atmosphere. This is a win-win situation for both adaptation and mitigation.

Similarly, in Australia, the choices we make about land use can help us both mitigate and adapt to climate change. This understanding underpins the world-leading Land Use Trade-offs model, originally developed by CSIRO.

Climateworks and Deakin University released a new version of the model in 2023. It shows how Australia’s land should best be used and managed to meet climate goals, agricultural demand and biodiversity.

For example, well-designed solar panels can produce clean energy and increase livestock productivity by providing shelter for sheep and protecting pastures.

Technology exceeds expectations

Hamilton and Wilkenfeld argue that humanity relies on technology at its own peril.

There is some truth to this. But we can’t underestimate the progress that technology has made so far. In fact, many renewable technologies are consistently outpacing our expectations – such as affordable solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles and LED lighting.

There is also great potential in technologies that enable emission reductions in Australia’s heavy industry.

In 2022, an initiative co-led by Climateworks found that it is possible to cut emissions by 70 million tonnes in just five Australian industrial regions – an 88% reduction – if timely and effective action is taken. This action also prepares Australia to realise its green steel and hydrogen superpower ambitions.

Living Hot highlights the huge increase that is required in Australia’s renewable energy supply if everything that is currently powered by fossil fuels is to be powered by clean sources. We agree. Australia’s electricity and grid demand is much greater than we have planned for so far.

This pressure on the grid can be reduced, however. We could use energy much more efficiently in our homes, businesses and industry.

And in some cases, these changes bring many benefits. Well-designed homes are cooler in summer and warmer in winter. They are also cheaper to run, more resistant to extreme climate conditions, and use less energy.

Regional cooperation is key

The authors of Living Hot argue that nothing Australia does “can significantly change the climate that Australians will live in in 2050 and beyond”.

In isolation, that might be the case. But Australia can have a significant impact on global efforts to combat climate change if it responds to calls from our region for meaningful cooperation on reducing emissions.

Over the past two decades, emissions in the Southeast Asian region have increased by almost 5% per year, driven by the rapid industrialization of countries in the region.

If left unchecked, this emissions-intensive economic growth threatens to push global warming beyond thresholds crucial to stabilising the Earth’s climate.

Australia and our region can provide many of the minerals and materials needed for the clean energy transition. To achieve this, Australia should work with our Indo-Pacific neighbours to help them acquire the specialist skills needed to decarbonise.

Looking at COP31

Australia is bidding to host the 2026 UN climate conference, COP31, in partnership with our Pacific neighbours.

If we succeed, it will be a once-in-a-generation opportunity to support the urgent need for ambitious climate change mitigation and adaptation actions in our region.

For the Pacific, adapting to climate change is existential. Tuvalu maintains its identity even though its land could disappear in just a few decades. But in Southeast Asia, mitigating emissions remains a bigger challenge and economic opportunity.

Radical emissions cuts – enough to slow and ultimately stop global warming – will give nations more time to adapt.

Australia has a lot to lose from climate change, but also a lot to gain. We are one of the sunniest and windiest places on the planet, with a vast landmass and rich reserves of key minerals needed for the energy transition.

A more certain, safer future for all is within our reach. This requires both cutting emissions as hard as possible and adapting to the changes that are coming.