Saving a Shaky Energy SDG

Although we are rapidly approaching five years from the Sustainable Development Goals deadline, we are still far from achieving SDG7, which calls for universal access to clean, affordable energy. Worse, we are in the midst of another record-breaking year of heat. Every month since June 2023 – 13 months in a row – has been the hottest month on average globally for that month, and June was the third month in a row that the Earth has exceeded the 1.5°C limit set in the Paris Agreement.

Extreme heat brings extreme weather: longer droughts, record rainfall, more intense storms, and changes in seasonality. Non-electric communities, which are least responsible for warming the planet, have the most to lose from these trends. A recent analysis by the International Energy Agency, the International Renewable Energy Agency, the UN Statistics Division, the World Bank, and the World Health Organization has reached a disturbing conclusion: we are failing to meet SDG7, and current efforts do not appear to be enough to get us back on track.

Since the turn of the century, the share of the world’s population with access to electricity has risen from just over 75% to 91%. But the pace of progress has lagged behind population growth. Disruptions in energy markets caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and instability in the Middle East have seen the number of people without access to electricity rise for the first time in more than a decade, to 685 million in 2022—ten million more than in 2021. If this continues, more than 660 million people will still be without power in 2030, and our pursuit of SDG7 will have failed.

While significant progress has been made in connecting populations in Asia, Latin America and elsewhere, Sub-Saharan Africa continues to lag behind and is home to 80% of the world’s population who lack access to energy. With hundreds of millions of people at risk of being left behind, urgent action is needed to prevent further setbacks on the path to SDG7. The current pace of renewable energy adoption still falls short of what will be needed to meet the mid-century net-zero emissions goals set out in the Paris Agreement and meet the immediate development needs of those living in energy poverty.

There are still reasons for hope. These are the same reasons that guided my tenure at the Asian Development Bank and that led me to join the Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet. Achieving SDG7 and tackling climate change is only possible if we work together to tackle this race against time.

We are already seeing the mobilization of Alliance partners. This spring, the World Bank and the African Development Bank announced a new, first-of-its-kind partnership to bring electricity to 300 million people in Africa by 2030. This is exactly the level of international cooperation that emerging economies desperately need.

To close this gap, we need to strengthen existing policies and mobilize greater investment, especially for programs targeting remote and low-income areas where the majority of the unelectrified population lives. Too much attention and investment in the global energy transition has been focused on greening the grid and reducing fossil fuel use in rich countries. Yet there seems to be less understanding that using more energy is essential to improving the economic prospects of the 685 million people living without electricity and hundreds of millions more with unreliable or unaffordable access.

Ending energy poverty – by delivering a “modern energy minimum” of 1,000 kilowatt-hours per person per year – means huge additional annual energy demands. Currently, per capita energy use in sub-Saharan Africa, excluding South Africa, is just 180 kWh, while most citizens of rich countries use 6,000–13,000 kWh per year. Unless energy-poor countries are given the support they need to provide electricity on a renewable scale, they could account for most of the world’s emissions by 2050.

The share of global clean energy investment in emerging markets and developing economies outside China is expected to remain around 15% of the total in 2024. This is well below what is required to provide full access to modern energy and meet growing energy demand in a sustainable manner. With economic crises in Nigeria and emerging economies across Africa, international cooperation to unlock climate finance for energy access has never been more urgent.

Energy creates opportunity. When investments in electricity are combined with investments in the tools to use that energy productively—solar water pumps, refrigerators, food processing machinery, micro-enterprise equipment, and essential services like schools and hospitals—incomes rise, productivity increases, new businesses are created, jobs are created, and people thrive. Making these investments a reality will require an unprecedented level of international cooperation. No one organization can do it alone.

The world cannot afford another year of falling behind on SDG7, and the only way to achieve net zero emissions is through an energy transformation that leaves no one behind. This is the moment for bold action. We are ready for it, and I hope the rest of the world is ready to join us.

© Project Syndicate 1995-2024