Tackling Disinformation on Climate Diplomacy by Chukwumerije Okereke

David claims that the purpose of Dialogue Earth is to persuade the Nigerian government to close the refinery. However, the summary he provides contradicts this conclusion, emphasizing that the main purpose of the essay is to raise awareness of the refinery paradox in the context of Nigeria’s energy transformation plan and its commitment to achieving net zero emissions by 2060. I think this is a very valid question, one that I raised and discussed in a recent article on the Dangote refinery and Nigeria’s climate commitment.

A recent article by the highly regarded and admired David Hundeyin is characteristically provocative. He raises several key issues that are conveyed in his typical style.

His sharing of the commissioned brief he received from Dialogue Earth in the spirit of complete openness is commendable, as is his statement that the future of Nigeria and Africa should be determined by Nigerians and Africans themselves. This undoubtedly includes how we choose to use our hydrocarbons.

I have never had any dealings with Dialogue Earth, let alone received funding from them. I have no grudge against them. However, as a leading expert on African climate policy, I find much of David’s presentation to be overly simplistic, bordering on sensationalism, and likely to draw a conclusion that does not advance a healthy debate on the impact of climate change on the Nigerian economy and how we should best respond to ensure Nigeria’s long-term economic stability.

David claims that the purpose of Dialogue Earth is to persuade the Nigerian government to close the refinery. However, the summary he provides contradicts this conclusion, emphasizing that the main purpose of the essay is to raise awareness of the refinery paradox in the context of Nigeria’s energy transformation plan and its commitment to achieving net zero emissions by 2060. I think this is a very valid question, one that I raised and discussed in a recent article on the Dangote refinery and Nigeria’s climate commitment.

While I wholeheartedly support the refinery on economic grounds, it is clear that its operation, as well as the Petroleum Industrial Act (PIA), poses a challenge to Nigeria’s climate ambitions. This tension and how best to resolve it require a calm national discussion. I have previously recommended that the government establish and adopt clear policies that help align our climate change, economic and energy security goals.

These could include carbon trading, carbon tax, carbon sequestration, carbon capture and carbon storage. Many of these measures are outlined in the Nigeria Climate Change Act and if implemented correctly, have the potential to generate billions of dollars for the government while promoting economic growth. Incidentally, a thorough environmental and social impact study of refineries, as suggested in the brief shared by David, is already required by our existing legislation and is necessary for social, environmental and economic reasons.

David also makes several other false or, at best, unsubstantiated claims in the article. For example, I see nothing in the summary he shared that indicates that Dialogue Earth is not concerned about the human poverty caused by the export of raw materials and the import of refined fuel, that it does not consider the emissions generated in this process to be harmful to the environment, or that its goal is to keep Africa poor. Such conclusions are reached by assuming that the only alternative to questioning the climate change effects of refineries is to support the current state of energy poverty and the unpatriotic policy of swapping crude oil for imported refined products, which is clearly harmful to the Nigerian economy and the environment.

I think Western environmental NGOs often make the mistake of pushing too hard for Africa to go green and leave the oil in the ground, while failing to lobby or campaign for sufficient financial support and technology transfer to develop renewable energy capacity in Africa. I have mentioned this issue several times in my discussion of this topic.

The more nuanced and truer position is that most Western environmental NGOs opposed to fossil fuel investment in Africa actively support alternative policies that promote renewable energy investment and poverty reduction in Africa. They envision a clean Africa powered by renewable energy that will provide Africa with global economic advantage.

I think Western environmental NGOs often make the mistake of pushing too hard for Africa to go green and leave the oil in the ground, while failing to lobby or campaign for sufficient financial support and technology transfer to develop renewable energy capacity in Africa. I have mentioned this issue several times in my discussion of this topic.

Several studies have shown that countries can increase their economic competitiveness by investing in renewable energy. Each country must consider, select and implement a strategy that is sensitive to its energy needs. In this regard, I am certain that strengthening Nigeria’s local refining capacity in the context of the frontier economic diversification program is the right strategy to address climate change, create jobs and grow our economy.

Climate change is real and is expected to cost Nigeria up to $460 billion by 2050. It is one of the most important economic development challenges facing Nigeria and other African countries.

While the UK is investing heavily in wind and carbon capture technology, it has been using its coal-fired power plants more than ever in recent years to cope with high energy demand due to a particularly severe winter. China is the world’s largest generator of solar power, but it is also the world’s worst polluter. In both cases, the countries are trying to balance climate change, energy security and long-term economic competitiveness. Both require risk analysis, scenario planning and common sense based on observed trends. Nigeria also needs to think and act strategically, rather than burying its head in the sand.

The international climate agreement calls for a rapid transition away from oil and gas to renewable energy. The agreement calls for tripling the renewable energy portfolio by 2030. Despite the abundance of solar energy, solar currently contributes less than 0.5 percent to our grid.

Nigeria can gain significant economic advantage by diversifying its economy and adopting a green economy. This does not require cutting all oil and gas production tomorrow.

…by asking a non-expert to comment on the Dangote refinery and climate change, Dialogue Earth has shown a lack of intelligence and prudence and can therefore be accused of naivety, desperation and stupidity. They brought this ant-infested wood upon themselves and now have to endure the inquisition, accusations, contempt and shame that come with it.

It is clear that David believes that climate change is a religious belief and it is obvious that this has influenced his interpretation of the summary he received and the commentary he provided. I strongly disagree that climate change is not real and is an issue that requires urgent attention.

It is important to note that the advocacy of various Western NGOs and citizens for a rapid green transformation is not limited to Africa, but is strong and effective in their home countries. Climate advocacy and action is a major social, political and economic issue in the UK, the US and other industrialised countries. It is a major topic of election debates and a dividing line between the main political parties.

However, Western environmental NGOs such as Dialogue Earth often make the mistake of promoting the same cause in Africa without a solid understanding of the African psyche, history, and economic conditions. And in doing so, they risk being accused of “climate colonialism,” a term I have used and discussed in previous works.

With all due respect, I think David should simply decline the request to conduct the research and write the summary on the grounds that climate policy and economics are not his areas of expertise.

However, by asking a non-expert to comment on the Dangote refinery and climate change, Dialogue Earth has shown a lack of intelligence and prudence and can therefore be accused of naivety, desperation and stupidity. They brought this ant-infested wood upon themselves and now have to endure the inquisition, blame, contempt and shame that comes with it.

However, it will be detrimental to Nigeria if David’s comments make it difficult to have a mature and evidence-based debate on how Nigeria can best balance its climate change and economic growth goals to achieve long-term climate resilience and sustainable development in a rapidly expanding green global economy.

Chukwumerije Okereke is Professor of Global Climate Governance and Public Policy at the School of Policy Studies, University of Bristol, and Director of the Alex Ekwueme Centre for Climate Change and Development at the Federal University, Ndufu-Alike, Ikwo, Nigeria.