Who will benefit from search ads after Google’s antitrust ruling?

In the wake of the U.S. Department of Justice’s sweeping decision to declare Google a “monopolist” in search, the regulatory future of online search is being questioned—a terrifying thought for many marketers.

The gist of the matter is that Google pays companies to ensure that a user’s browser is directed to the Google search engine by default. Apple is a notable example of this: every search in Safari on iPhones and Macs directs directly to Google. Between these offers and Chrome browser prevalence and Android OS worldwide, Google has 91% market share search engines.

Google’s dominance is nothing new to marketers. But the reality that marketers need to remember is that the antitrust ruling doesn’t actually change user behavior. The “Kleenex effect” still exists. “To Google” is a verb in Oxford English DictionaryGoogle’s cultural dominance will not go away.

Still, with a landmark ruling potentially forcing Google to change its business practices, who is most likely to steal some of its search market share? And what should marketers do about it?

AI Candidates Are a Hot Topic – But Mainly for B2B

Everyone is looking at new players like OpenAI’s SearchGPT, Copilot for Microsoft 365, and Perplexity. They support more complex prompts and offer more sophisticated results than Google Search in some cases.

But these tools are more often discussed in the context of business applications, from generating copy to creating scripts to analyzing thousands of rows of data. The question is whether these tools are ready for the search needs of the general population. And with fewer ad products and less depth of data than Google has, they’re unlikely to be a good fit for mainstream advertisers for some time.

Tech-savvy users who can switch to Perplexity or SearchGPT are more likely to attract B2B ad dollars due to their demographics and search intent. Google’s revenue is much less dependent on B2B advertisers than B2C, but B2B SaaS marketers should consider testing in the sandbox (not this sandbox) as soon as ad units are available in hopes of achieving lower CPCs.

For non-tech B2C companies, you don’t have to worry about being able to reach customers via AI-powered chatbots for at least 12 months.

Retail and marketplaces pose a much greater threat

Users with purchasing intent are more likely to start their searches directly in marketplaces and commercial environments. This phenomenon has long been documented with Amazon and now with the success of TikTok Shop.

Google Shopping user experiences are most at risk here, but only a small percentage of consumers have decided to make such changes to their behavior.

Still, retailers that fail to factor Amazon into their broader search strategy risk being left behind.

Retailers can improve visibility and find new growth opportunities by coordinating their site’s search engine marketing and search engine optimization efforts with content from their marketplace’s product detail pages and sponsored keywords.

Social players to want to enter the search, but it’s early

Meta is the only company besides Google that has enough user data to create truly personalized experiences using AI.

However, Meta is unlikely to enter search activity – for now. Meta AI integration into feeds, chats, and search has been limited because it doesn’t yet align with user behavior on Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp.

Reddit makes some dents in search – growing number of searches switch on “Reddit” to help users find information created by their peers. But Reddit isn’t even close to actually diverting users away from Google searches.

Bing is not what you are looking for

Even with Google’s closest U.S. market share, Microsoft’s Bing Ads is unlikely to be a strong enough competitor to lure users away, since Microsoft has no history of investing in search innovation. Most of Microsoft’s ad products have followed Google’s lead.

Currently, Bing is popular primarily with B2B advertisers due to the prevalence of Windows computers in the workplace – so marketers should plan their business as usual.

Possible dark horse: technology cooperation

If Google’s existing partnership with Apple is ultimately deemed null and void under antitrust law, a potential partnership between Apple and OpenAI would be fascinating. Such a relationship could impact Google’s market share if Apple and Open AI’s user experience is strong and seamless enough to attract experienced consumers.

If this partnership goes through, since Microsoft owns the advertising rights to ChatGPT, marketers should make sure their Bing Ads accounts are firing on all cylinders. Update conversion tagging, audience lists, negative keywords, etc.

Regardless of how the competition plays out, the ruling that Google is a “monopoly” and violates antitrust law is a watershed moment for the entire tech industry.

Nothing is set in stone, and we’re far from seeing immediate results. Google plans to appeal the decision, which could take years. Another antitrust trial is set to begin in September. And then there’s this year’s presidential election, which could radically change the regulatory landscape.

But for marketers who are looking to the future, preparing today to capitalize on new opportunities on other platforms can yield huge benefits over the next 12 to 18 months.

“Data-driven thinking” is written by members of the media community and provides fresh ideas about the digital revolution in media.

Follow Monk’s AND Ad Exchanger on LinkedIn.