US economy loses 818,000 jobs. America, we have a weird view of our economic health

Comerica Wealth Management CIO John Lynch on expected job changes in 2024, his expectations for Fed Chairman Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole, where to allocate capital and Target’s earnings.

Government statistics tend to paint a more optimistic picture of the economy than how real Americans on Main Street believe things are going. For example, more than half of Americans say they believe the country is in a recession. We’re not — officially — but it’s clear that millions of Americans aren’t buying the rosy scenario.

One of the few areas President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have been able to talk about since taking office has been employment. Even as inflation has soared, prices have risen 20 percent and real incomes have fallen by $2,100 per family under their administration, employment has been high and unemployment has remained fairly low.

“Kudlow” panelists Steve Moore and Scott Bessent compare the economic policies of former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

But now we’re learning that hiring over the past year was nearly 30% lower than originally announced. Oops.

As Fox Business reports, “The U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12 months through March 2024, the Labor Department said Wednesday. In its preliminary annual revisions to nonfarm payroll data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said actual job growth was nearly 30% smaller than the originally reported 2.9 million from April 2023 through March of next year.”

US ECONOMY CREATED 818,000 FEWER JOBS THAN PREVIOUSLY REPORTED

That downward revision of 818,000 is much more than a rounding error. Three percent is a rounding error. Thirty percent means we’ve been fed a distorted picture of the economy.

Former Home Depot CEO and President Bob Nardelli discusses U.S. employment data, saying the labor market is “tight.”

I am NOT accusing the Bureau of Labor Statistics of wrongdoing. They are professionals. But the model is flawed. They have revised down their preliminary employment estimates for at least nine of the last 10 months.

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Equally troubling is the fact that the Labor Department has already overestimated modest private-sector job numbers and slightly overestimated government employment. This only reinforces an argument I have been making on these pages for months.

Jobs are being created in the wrong places.

Stephen Moore is co-founder of Unleash Prosperity and an economic advisor to the Trump campaign.

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