Former President Trump leads Harris by narrow margin among Texas voters: UH/TSU poll

HOUSTON – A recent survey of likely voters in Texas shows that nearly half plan to vote for former Republican President Donald Trump in the upcoming November election, with 49.5% saying they support him. Meanwhile, 44.6% of respondents say they will support Democratic vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris.

Trump’s approval rating is up slightly from 48.9% in June, but Harris made significant gains, narrowing Trump’s lead to just under five points. That’s a significant narrowing from Trump’s nine-point lead over President Joe Biden in the previous survey conducted by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston and the Executive Master of Public Administration program at the Barbara Jordan–Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs at Texas Southern University.

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“Harris has made significant gains among voters both in Texas and nationally in the short time since she entered the race last month,” said Renée Cross, senior executive director of Hobby School. “This is particularly true among younger voters, with 55% of Gen Z voters saying they would support her, compared to just 39% who supported Biden. She has also gained ground among women and independent voters.”

Despite Harris’ gains, Texas remains a Republican state, where Trump has clear leads among men, white voters and older voters. Among Latino voters, however, Trump’s lead over Harris is slim, 47% to 46%, a significant change from 2020, when Texas Latinos favored Biden over Trump by 17 percentage points.

The second wave of the survey followed President Biden’s decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential race and Harris’ subsequent nomination. The survey reinterviewed a significant portion of respondents from the June survey, adding new participants to ensure a representative sample.

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Mark P. Jones, a political science fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, noted that while Trump remains a dominant figure in Texas politics, the race has become more competitive. “What had been a steady race, with Trump trailing Biden by a few percentage points for months, has become more competitive,” he said. “Support for independents has fallen, especially for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., whose support has fallen to 2% in this survey from 5% in June, with more than twice as many former Kennedy supporters voting for Harris as for Trump.”

Only 2.7% of likely voters in Texas remain undecided in the presidential race, according to the poll. Michael Adams, director of TSU’s Executive Master of Public Administration program, attributes much of Harris’s surge to a surge in support among independents, many of whom had previously backed Kennedy or Stein. “Independent voters in Texas are pretty evenly split between Trump and Harris, 41% versus 39%,” Adams said. “In June, when Biden was still in the race, we found that 42% of independents were for Trump, while only 18% were for Biden. It seems like a significant portion of the third-party vote was partly a reflection of a desire for another candidate, and Harris delivered that.”

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The study also revealed the following key findings:

• Harris has been drawing more women to Trump, leading 50% to 44% in June. Trump led Biden among women by four percentage points, 46% to 42%. But among men, Trump has an 18-point lead over Harris, 56% to 38%.
• The race appears stable: 96% of Harris voters and 92% of Trump voters are confident in their choice, with only 4% and 8%, respectively, considering changing their minds before the election.
• Harris’s favorability rating has improved significantly since June, now standing at -3% (48% favorable, 51% unfavorable), down from -14% in June.
• Trump’s overall popularity rating remains relatively unchanged at -1% (49% positive, 50% negative).

The survey was conducted in English and Spanish between August 5 and 16, and has a margin of error of +/-2.65%.