Weekly Market Review | CMC Markets

We invite you to take a look at the three most important market events to watch out for in the coming week, according to Michael Kramer.

The market is entering one of the quietest weeks of the year ahead of the Labor Day weekend. S&P 500 futures trading volumes are weak since their Aug. 5 lows, which could be a factor in a quick stock market rebound.

US Election Update

Former President Trump’s stock rose in the betting markets last week, narrowing the gap with Vice President Kamala Harris. At one point, markets appeared to be rising on expectations of a Trump victory, but that correlation has disconnected since early August. Given the recent stock market gains relative to polls, it’s unclear now whether the market is even focused on the election; that could change in September.

Tracking US Election Polls, August 2023–Present

^{Sources: PredictIt, Bloomberg, Michael Kramer}

Wednesday, August 28
Nvidia is expected to report earnings and revenue more than doubled in its fiscal second quarter of 2025 to $0.64 per share and $28.7 billion, respectively. Adjusted gross margins are expected to rise to 75.5% in the quarter. Investors will be closely watching third-quarter guidance, with revenue expected to come in at $31.7 billion, adjusted gross margins at 75%, and earnings of $0.71 per share. The options market is pricing in a 9% move in the company’s stock price on the results.

Implied volatility levels are very high for options expiring on August 30, with demand for calls outpacing demand for puts. This potentially creates a bearish catalyst for the stock if results fail to meet investors’ high expectations.

Nvidia stock has returned to the Fibonacci retracement level of the 78.6% decline between July 20 and August 5, which acted as resistance for several days. A push above the $130 resistance could propel the Nasdaq-listed stock to new highs, as there is little resistance from an options or technical perspective. However, given the high expectations created by the massive beats over the past year, anything less than great could send the stock tumbling quickly, potentially returning it to the August 5 lows.

Nvidia Stock Price, April 2024 – Present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Germany August CPI

Thursday, August 29
Germany’s preliminary consumer price index (CPI) for August will be released after the eurozone CPI on Friday. It is expected to show a continuation of the disinflationary trend, bringing inflation back to around 2%, after last month’s year-on-year reading of 2.3% and the EU’s harmonised index of 2.6%. If the report does not bring any surprises, it probably means that the eurozone report due the following day should not bring many surprises.

EUR/USD has broken above key resistance at $1.11 and is currently overbought, trading above the upper Bollinger Band, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70. The pair is currently consolidating around the $1.11 level, which is currently support; a break of this level could see a decline towards $1.09.

EUR/USD, January 2023 – present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

US PCE Price Index in July

Friday, August 30
The July reading of the Consumer Price Index (PCE) is expected to show a 0.2% month-on-month increase, up from 0.1% in June, and a 2.6% year-on-year increase, up from 2.5%. Core PCE, meanwhile, is forecast to rise 0.2% month-on-month in July, in line with the previous month’s gain, although the year-over-year figure is expected to decline slightly from 2.7% to 2.6%. Given that the market is pricing in interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve between now and December, any weaker-than-expected data could see another rate cut being priced in early 2025.

This could benefit GBP/USD even more, as the Bank of England is only likely to cut rates once in 2024. While the pair is currently overbought, consolidation ahead of the PCE report could lead to another move higher, especially as GBP/USD is testing resistance at $1.32. A breakout could take it towards $1.34.

GBP/USD, July 2021 – Present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Here’s our summary of the key economic announcements and corporate reports scheduled for the coming week:

Monday

• Results: PDD Holdings (Q2)

Tuesday

• Germany: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q2
• USA: Consumer Confidence Index for August

Wednesday

• Australia: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July
• Results: CrowdStrike (Q2), Faron Pharmaceuticals (hybrid), HP (Q3), Naked Wines (fiscal year), Nvidia (Q2), PensionBee (hybrid), Salesforce (Q2),

Thursday

• Eurozone: Consumer confidence indicator for August
• Germany: CPI in August
• Japan: Tokyo CPI for August
• USA: GDP in Q2, number of new unemployment benefits claims through August 23
• Results: Autodesk (Q2), Dell (Q2), Lululemon (Q2), Marvell Technology (Q2)

Friday

• Eurozone: CPI in August
• Germany: Retail sales in July
• USA: Consumer Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July

Please note: While we double check all dates to ensure they are correct at the time of writing, the above announcements are subject to change.