How changes in the HVAC industry will impact homeowners

AND: The Environmental Protection Agency is mandating a transition away from the current R-410A refrigerant. This transition will affect owners in their decision-making process when it is time to replace their unit. New refrigerants require new equipment.

As environmental concerns continue to shape regulations, the HVAC industry is undergoing a significant shift away from R-410A refrigerant. GWP (global warming potential) is an EPA indicator of the negative impact of a gas on climate change. The EPA has mandated refrigerants change to a refrigerant with a lower GWP than 410A.

The industry has adopted two new refrigerants R-454B & R-32. Most manufacturers are moving to systems that use 454B. The law states that split systems cannot be sold in 2025 with 410A. They can continue to be installed until 2026. Manufacturers are converting their factory lines in September to stop building 410A equipment. They do not want dead inventory which they cannot sell by law.

Q: Will this change affect the cost of replacing an HVAC system?

AND: The short answer is, yes.

As manufacturers transition away from R-410A, new HVAC systems are being designed to use alternative refrigerants, such as R-32 and R-454B. These new systems are anticipated to increase the cost of a new system replacement by 10% to 13%. The cost increase is associated with equipment cost increases, refrigerant handling requirements, new safety systems inside the HVAC systems and new installation processes.

Q: What will happen to the units that use the R-410A refrigerant?

AND: For homeowners with existing R-410A systems, the transition could lead to significantly higher repair and replacement costs. Since 2020 (EPA regulations began), 410A refrigerant has increased in cost 375%. As we move into 410A phase out, the cost of 410A is going to continue to skyrocket.

If we compare this refrigerant change to the R-22 change in 2010, we can assume that in five to eight years, it is going to become too expensive to repair refrigerant-related issues on 410A equipment.

Q: Should I hold onto my current R-410A system?

AND: The 410A refrigerant will be harder to find and more expensive as time goes on. The industry is in the process of converting its factory manufacturing lines to new refrigerant systems. The availability of 410A equipment is going to become very challenging going into this fall. The report that we hear from local contractors is that they are already seeing significant challenges sourcing equipment and parts.

Important Tip: If a homeowner is in the market for a new HVAC system and the upfront cost is a concern, a 410A system might be your best option, but you will need to act fast. These systems can be installed until 2026.

Q: What is the benefit of the new systems for consumers?

AND: Preliminary reports show the new refrigerant will be more efficient but, more testing is needed.

Although most system ratings and matchups have not yet been released, preliminary data suggests that the new refrigerant is going to be more efficient than 410A. Although the cost of the new refrigerant systems are going to have a higher upfront cost, the operational expenses in the long term should offset some of these costs.

Todd Russo of Reeis Air Conditioning and Heating sees potential for these new systems and refrigerant doing well in the desert. They are efficient enough that they open up the possibility of downsizing to a smaller unit.

Q: Should I replace my unit?

AND: If your unit is more than 12 years old it would be wise to search out the details before buying. Homeowners may elect to take advantage of the current pricing available on the 410A equipment or they may want to consider a replacement with 454B refrigerant equipment before next summer. Equipment should be available for installation as early as late September to early October.

Homeowners should also consider installation before year’s end to take advantage of the 2024 tax credits on heat pumps and air conditioning systems.