Can Lebanon, whose economy and infrastructure are in ruins, afford war with Israel?

BEIRUT (AP) — A brutal exchange of fire between Hezbollah and the Israeli military is raising fears of a regional war beyond the tense border.

The risks for Lebanon are much greater than in 2006, when a month-long war with Israel ended in a draw. Lebanon has struggled for years with political and economic crises that have left it in debt, without a stable electricity supply, a proper banking system and with rampant poverty.

Given that Hezbollah’s military strength is much greater, there are fears that the new war will be much more destructive and long-lasting.

Can Lebanon afford this?

Since Hezbollah and Israel began firing rockets and drones at each other the day after Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza began on Oct. 7, the conflict has been largely confined to border towns. But with the threat of a wider war looming, Lebanon has been frantically stocking hospitals with supplies and preparing public schools to open to people seeking shelter.

A rare Israeli airstrike in southern Beirut last month that killed a top Hezbollah commander has sparked a wave of meetings between aid groups and the Lebanese government, said Laila Al Amine, who heads the Beirut office of the international aid group Mercy Corps, one of about 60 organizations that help the government in its relief efforts.

The government and UN agencies this month prepared a comprehensive response plan that outlined two possible scenarios: a limited escalation resembling the 2006 war that would displace some 250,000 people, and a worst-case scenario of “disorderly conflict” that would displace at least a million people.

The U.N. plan, a copy of which was obtained by The Associated Press, estimates a monthly cost of $50 million in the event of a minor escalation and $100 million in the event of an all-out war.

The Lebanese government has said emergency funding will come from creditors and humanitarian aid organizations. But authorities are struggling to find money to care for the 100,000 currently displaced and about 60,000 people living in conflict areas, at a cost of about $24 million a month.

Environment Minister Nasser Yassin, who is leading the relief effort, told reporters after an emergency cabinet meeting on Sunday that the morning attacks would not change the plan.

“It already presents scenarios of all possible events, including the escalation of hostilities,” Yassin said.

Decades of corruption and political paralysis have left Lebanon’s banks barely functioning, while energy services are almost entirely in the hands of private owners of diesel generators and fuel suppliers. Public service institutions rely on aid groups and international donors to function at a basic level. Lebanese who once lived in relative comfort are receiving food and cash assistance to survive.

In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic further battered the economy, with the Beirut port explosion devastating several neighborhoods in the heart of the capital. Lebanese banks and the ruling elite resisted painful reforms as a condition for an International Monetary Fund bailout, while infrastructure continued to wither and living conditions deteriorated.

Tourism, on which officials had said economic recovery was dependent, has also suffered due to the border conflict with Israel.

And unlike in 2006, Lebanon is hosting more than a million Syrian refugees who fled the conflict in their country. Health Minister Firas Abiad told the AP earlier this month that Lebanon’s health system is not adequately equipped to treat the additional population in the event of an all-out war, as international funding for Syrian refugees continues to decline.

In April, Yassin said the country had only half the financial resources needed to resolve the conflict and meet the resulting humanitarian needs.

In 2006, Israel bombed the runways of Lebanon’s only airport, largely disabling it, and imposed an air and sea blockade. The bombardment paralyzed critical infrastructure and razed neighborhoods, causing $3.1 billion in damage and losses, according to the World Bank.

But aid groups were eventually able to send supplies through the country’s ports and sometimes the airport, using the limited runway space left. In its assessment of the war, the U.N. said its aid efforts were not a response to a humanitarian crisis. “People were not dying from poor sanitation, hunger or disease. They were dying from bombs and shells,” the U.N. OCHA said in a report a month after the war.

Many Lebanese have managed to flee to neighboring Syria, where a 2011 uprising plunged the country into civil war. It is unclear how easy it would be to cross the border this time, either for civilians or aid groups.

It is also unclear whether Beirut’s port, still not fully rebuilt from a devastating 2020 explosion, would have enough capacity in the event of a wider war. Its damaged grain silos collapsed in 2022, and the country is reliant on minimal food storage due to the financial crisis.

“Lebanon apparently has two to three months of food and fuel, but what happens after that?” Al Amine said. “We only have one airport and we can’t transport things across our land borders. It would be difficult to bring things into the country.”

In 2006, Hezbollah was reported to have about 15,000 rockets in its arsenal, “but more recent unofficial estimates suggest that number has increased almost tenfold,” said Dina Arakji, an analyst at British consultancy Control Risks.

The group “has also acquired more advanced weaponry, including precision-guided missiles and variants of Iranian, as well as Chinese and Russian weapons,” she added.

Hezbollah, which relies on a network of Iranian-backed allied groups that could join the conflict, has also significantly expanded its arsenal of drones and the capabilities to use them, against which Israeli air defenses are less effective.

Lebanese officials and international diplomats hope an elusive ceasefire agreement in Gaza will calm southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has said it would halt attacks along the border if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza.

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Associated Press videographer Ali Sharafeddine contributed to this report.