Why the Red Sox lost the 2024 trade deadline, according to a new report

Ahead of the first trade deadline for Craig Breslow to the Boston Red Sox, the chief baseball officer made it clear: It was time to choose a path.

The Red Sox bought, if not as aggressively as some fans might have liked. But the returns on their investment were questionable at best.

There’s catcher Danny Jansen, who was mostly average, with a few key hits. There’s starting pitcher James Paxton, who got hurt in his third start for Boston. Then there were relievers Luis Garcia and Lucas Sims, who both had terrible stats before going on the injured list that same day.

Overall, Boston’s trade deadline has been disappointing at best. And ESPN’s latest report reflects poorly on the acquisitions Breslow and his team have made.

ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle reported a month later on the winners and losers at the trade deadline, sorted by win probability added to the pieces they brought in and traded away. The Red Sox were listed among the teams that added win probability, but according to Doolittle, they still had bad deadlines.

“The real problem was relievers Luis Garcia and Lucas Sims,” Doolittle said. “Garcia seemed to be turning things around, but he went on the injured list with elbow inflammation the same day Sims was sidelined with a strained latissimus dorsi. And let’s not lose sight of the fact that Boston’s playoff chances have diminished significantly over the past month.”

The Red Sox trade’s combined WPA is +0.41, which still doesn’t add up to many wins on the board. Much of that is helped by a few hits from Jansen, and first baseman Niko Kavadas, sent to the Los Angeles Angels for Garcia, has also been negative in his short time in the majors.

As for the two relievers, Boston has to be hugely disappointed with the additions they brought in to address their biggest needs. The Red Sox bullpen is the worst in baseball since the shutdown, with Garcia (10.32 ERA) and Sims (8.10) both having outbursts that contributed to key losses.

Breslow, meanwhile, traded a total of nine prospects at the deadline, compared to just one last season. The question remains whether any of those prospects will become impact players in the big leagues, but the odds suggest the damage from this deadline spending spree will linger into future seasons.

There’s still time, though not much, to make a last-minute playoff push. But if Boston doesn’t play in October, the trade deadline will be remembered as the turning point of the season, and not in a good way.

More MLB: Red Sox hurler, 44, gets praise from manager: ‘He’s here to contribute’