Polysilicon and wafer production continues to decline in September, price negotiations intensify in mining sectors

Polysilicon

The general list price for mono-charged polysilicon is RMB 34/KG, while mono-dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 32/KG and N-type polysilicon is priced at RMB 38/KG.

Transaction: Trading sentiment has been relatively weak this week. Some polysilicon producers have raised prices slightly, ranging from 0 yuan to 1 yuan. However, downstream ingot producers, who face the challenge of raising prices, are less open to higher-priced polysilicon orders. Therefore, polysilicon transaction volumes are lower. It has been difficult for upstream and downstream producers to agree on transaction prices.

Production plans for this month: Polysilicon has further reduced production to prevent larger losses. As cash flow pressures increase, further production cuts or even suspensions may occur in the polysilicon sector. Stronger producers continue to dominate the market, with monthly production at around 130,000 tonnes, down slightly from the previous month.

Inventory dynamics: Polysilicon stocks remain stable, with weekly levels ranging from 200,000 to 220,000 tons. Granular silicon stocks are declining due to active production reductions by leading producers and downstream purchases. There is still a gap between supply and demand for polysilicon this month, and stocks could be exposed to upward pressure until the end of the month.

Price trend: Prices remained stable this week. Although polysilicon producers are eager to raise prices, high inventories and excess capacity continue to exert downward pressure. In the short term, the primary strategy to stabilize inventories in the polysilicon sector remains reducing production loads and pushing small and medium-sized producers out of business. The success of polysilicon price increases may depend on whether wafer prices can be effectively increased.

Waffles

The final price of the M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.15/pc, while the price of the G12 P-type wafer is RMB 1.65/pc. The final price of the M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.08/pc, while the price of the G12 N-type wafer is RMB 1.50/pc. The final price of the G12R N-type wafer is RMB 1.25/pc.

Production: The production plan for this month has been reduced to a range of 49-50 GW, probably reaching the lower limit. Leading specialist manufacturers contributed significantly to production reductions, and other manufacturers also slowed production. The consensus among wafer manufacturers to reduce production and support price increases has strengthened. In addition, P-type wafers are being phased out, and N-type wafers now account for almost 90% of monthly production.

Supply and demand dynamics: Due to significant losses, leading wafer manufacturers are increasingly unanimous in their decision to reduce production and reduce wafer inventories. The gap between supply and demand for wafers has turned negative for the first time this year. However, demand is also falling as orders for solar modules remain unclear and price pressure on cells has made cell manufacturers less willing to accept higher wafer prices. Currently, cell manufacturers are still focused on using up their wafer inventories. So the time it takes to sell off inventory may determine the success of price increases.

Price trend: Wafer prices remained stable this week, with price negotiations between upstream and downstream participants intensifying. Some wafer producers are holding on to higher prices, while cell manufacturers are wary of increased losses if they accept higher wafer prices. Looking ahead, wafer prices are expected to remain in a tug-of-war.

Cells

The main price of M10 cell is RMB 0.290/W, while G12 cells are priced at RMB 0.290/W. The price of M10 Mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.275/W, while G12 Mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.280/W.

Supply and demand dynamics: The cell segment is facing dual pressures. On the supply side, cell production is increasing slightly due to capacity expansion by a leading specialist manufacturer, leading to a slight oversupply of N-type cells. On the demand side, module manufacturers are facing insufficient orders, which is reducing support for cell demand. In addition, intense competition among module manufacturers has led to some leading module manufacturers lowering prices. The challenge for the cell segment is the increasing willingness of the upstream to raise prices due to continuous losses, while the module side is facing intense competition and is unable to absorb higher costs. Specialist cell manufacturers have limited bargaining power and cannot easily pass on cost pressure to the downstream.

Price trend: Cell prices remained stable this week. With volatile downstream orders and upstream pricing pressure, some cell manufacturers may reduce or halt production due to deteriorating profitability. In the short term, it will be difficult to pass on cost pressure through price increases.

Modules

The final price of a 182mm mono PERC module is RMB 0.71/W, a 210mm mono PERC module is RMB 0.73/W, a 182mm PERC module with bifacial glass is RMB 0.72/W, and a 210mm PERC module with bifacial glass is RMB 0.74/W. The final price of a 182mm TOPCon module is RMB 0.76/W, and a 210mm HJT module is RMB 0.90/W.

Supply dynamics: The September module production plan is in the range of 46-47 GW, with the upper end expected if demand remains stable. Some manufacturers, where demand has improved, have reported mid- to low-double-digit production increases, while others have reduced module production due to insufficient orders. Order lag is becoming a new trend, and local production to meet local demand in overseas markets continues to affect domestic production plans.

Price trend: Module prices have remained stable this week. Some leading manufacturers have cut prices by 0.01-0.03 yuan/W to increase supply. Due to weak demand in the distributed PV sector, the spot price of some large distributed PV manufacturers may drop below 0.70 yuan/W.

Photovoltaic glass

The standard transaction price for 2.0mm thick coated photovoltaic glass is 13.00 yuan/m², and for 3.2mm thick coated photovoltaic glass, the price is 22.00 yuan/m².

Supply and demand dynamics: More and more PV glass manufacturers are undergoing cold repairs or are closing production lines, leading to reduced production capacity. On the demand side, module manufacturers continue to focus on clearing their inventories, and their production plans are unable to meet PV glass deliveries, causing PV glass inventories to reach new highs this year.

Price trend: PV glass prices are under the dual pressure of weak supply and demand dynamics and rising inventories, which is leading to further price cuts. The transaction price of 2.0mm coated PV glass fell 3.70% to 13.00 yuan/m², while that of 3.2mm coated PV glass fell 2.22% to 22.00 yuan/m².