Ukraine War Enters Unstable Phase After Offensive on Russia

LONDON — Ukraine’s surprise offensive into Russia last month shook up the war in Ukraine, setting off a turbulent phase of the war that saw fighting spill onto Russian territory for the first time, but also allowed Russia to make faster progress in eastern Ukraine, even as both sides stepped up air operations.

Since the invasion began last month, Russia has responded with an intensified air campaign, launching a series of missiles and drones last week that have caused extremely high civilian casualties. Meanwhile, Ukraine has taken its airstrikes on energy infrastructure and military facilities in Russia to a new level.

Russian cruise missiles struck the center of the normally safe city of Lviv on Wednesday, killing seven people, wounding more than 50 and damaging dozens of buildings.

Russia has carried out unusually large-scale attacks on other cities in the past two weeks. On Tuesday, two Russian missiles killed more than 50 people and wounded 270 when they hit a military academy in Poltava.

The Ukrainian advance into Russia’s Kursk region has captured several hundred square kilometers of territory and dozens of small villages, and hundreds of Russian prisoners of war have been captured. The offensive initially caught Russia by surprise and embarrassed the Kremlin, but Ukrainian forces have made little progress since the first two weeks, and Russia has slowly stabilized its lines there, although its troops remain on the defensive.

However, the invasion also opened up an opportunity for Russia, allowing it to make unusually rapid advances on the eastern Ukrainian front. Some analysts believe this happened because Ukraine diverted some of its reserves and ammunition to the offensive against Russia.

Meanwhile, Russian troops have been steadily advancing toward the city of Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub, smashing through Ukrainian defenses and forcing the evacuation of tens of thousands of civilians. Russia’s advance threatens to disrupt Ukrainian supply lines to the Donbas region and raise the risk of a larger breakthrough on the front lines there.

Ukrainian officials have indicated they hope their Kursk offensive will draw Russian forces away from the Pokrovsk front, which was already under intense pressure. But so far, at least, Russia has not been fooled. Instead, it has decided to throw some of its most combat-ready resources into continuing the advance on Pokrovsk rather than focusing on driving the Ukrainians out of their own territory in Kursk.

President Vladimir Putin confirmed on Thursday that the Kremlin had decided to prioritize the offensive in Pokrovsk.

“The enemy’s goal was to make us anxious, to rush, to transfer forces from one sector to another, and also to stop the offensive in key sectors, first of all in Donbas, the liberation of which is a priority for us,” Putin told the participants of the economic forum.

“Did the enemy succeed? No, they failed. On the contrary, by redeploying quite large and quite well-trained units to areas on our border, the enemy weakened in key sectors, while our forces intensified offensive operations,” Putin said.

Most independent military analysts believe it is too early to tell whether Ukraine’s risky decision in Kursk paid off or not. Analysts note that it has changed the narrative that Ukraine is inevitably losing the war and burdening Russia.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said this week that Russia had already moved 60,000 troops to Kursk to counter the offensive, and open-source researchers have confirmed that Russian units have moved from other fronts.

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said this week it had observed that the Russian command had likely redeployed some “limited elements” that were likely to take part in future offensive operations toward Pokrovsk.

“But the risks shouldn’t be underestimated,” Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Rob Lee, a military expert at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, wrote in a recent article for Foreign Affairs. “The best-case scenario is that Ukrainian forces hold Russia with relatively small gains in Donetsk and hold Kursk with a sustained force engagement.”

“The worst-case scenario is that in a few months, Ukraine will lose significant areas of land in the east and will not retain any territory in Kursk that it could use as a bargaining chip,” Kofman and Lee wrote, noting that both scenarios are still possible.

Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews, wrote that the success of Ukraine’s Kursk operation is underrated, saying it was already “a major strategic success.”

“First, the Ukrainians are creating a large, resupplyable, and defensible area inside Russia itself. That’s a very large area that the Russians will have difficulty retaking without a major force,” he wrote on his Substack blog. It also created a buffer for Ukraine’s Sumy region, O’Brien wrote, while forcing Russia to stretch its troops to defend the rest of its borders. The operation also changed the narrative around the war and showed the Biden administration the emptiness of Russia’s nuclear red lines, he wrote.

Zelensky has said the Kursk operation is part of a broader effort to bring the war into Russia and force the Kremlin to negotiate on fair terms. Ukraine has also stepped up its own air campaign against military facilities and energy infrastructure deep in Russia, using a growing fleet of domestic drones. Last weekend, Ukraine carried out one of the largest drone strikes of the war, hitting power plants and an oil refinery just outside Moscow.

Zelensky told a news conference in Kyiv last week that he intended to present President Joe Biden with a plan to force Russia to end the war when he visits the U.S. later this month. Zelensky said the Kursk operation was part of the plan but also envisaged using diplomacy and economic means to pressure Russia, though he did not elaborate.

“The main goal of this plan is to force Russia to end the war. And I really want that – (for it to be) fair for Ukraine,” Zelensky said.

Zelensky this week carried out the biggest reshuffle of his Cabinet since Russia’s full-scale invasion, seeking to dismiss several influential ministers, including Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, one of the most recognizable faces of the Ukrainian government.

Zelensky has explained the move as necessary to inject “new energy” into Ukraine’s government. The move has drawn mixed reactions, with some observers warning it will further centralize power in the presidential administration.