What to expect from New Hampshire’s state primary

WASHINGTON (AP) — New Hampshire is one of the smallest states in the country, but Tuesday’s state primary is interesting enough to swing a much larger state.

The state of New England has an independent streak, making it difficult to classify as red or blue. Although it has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in each of the last five elections, it has also sent moderate Republican Chris Sununu to the governor’s mansion four times. Its four-member congressional delegation has been made up entirely of Democrats since 2017, but Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both houses of the state legislature.

Tuesday’s primary will set the stage for a revealing general election. Given pensions Sununu and longtime Rep. Ann Kuster, there are open races for governor and the state’s 2nd Congressional District. Both races feature competitive Republican and Democratic primaries. And in addition to those key executive and legislative races, every seat in the nation’s largest state legislature is up for election in 2024.

The Republican primary for governor will feature Kelly Ayotteformer U.S. senator who has vowed to stay in the “Sununu path,” against former state Senate President Chuck Morse, who has touted himself as “the only New Hampshire gubernatorial candidate to endorse Donald Trump.” Ayotte is the leading fundraiser in the race, with more than $7 million raised so far.

On the Democratic side, Joyce Craigformer Manchester mayor, will face Cinde Warmington, the only Democrat on the New Hampshire Executive Council (a five-person panel that approves state agency heads, judges and state contracts), and business owner Jon Kiper. Craig is the second-biggest fundraiser among both parties’ gubernatorial candidates, trailing only Ayotte.

The 2nd Congressional District, which stretches across the eastern side of the state and is the bluer of the state’s two districts, has more than a dozen GOP candidates. The leading fundraiser is Vikram Mansharamani, an economist and author, while 2022 candidate Lily Tang Williams is trailing by about $100,000.

But the Democratic primary, which pits activists Maggie Goodlander and Colin Van Ostern against each other, has become a more expensive and unpleasant race.

Kuster stepped in on behalf of Van Ostern, her former staffer. In an ad she shot for him, she criticized Goodlander for not having lived in the district for decades. Goodlander, who worked for the late Sen. John McCain and at the Justice Department, was born and raised in the district but owns property in the state’s 2nd Congressional District. Van Ostern, who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2016, has cast himself as the candidate with more grassroots support.

Here’s what you can expect on Tuesday:

Basic day

New Hampshire’s state primary will be held Tuesday. The last polls close at 8:00 p.m. ET, although polls in most of the state close at 7:00 p.m. ET. Polls in two cities close at 7:30 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot?

The Associated Press will report the vote tally and announce the winners of the contested primaries for governor, U.S. House of Representatives, state Senate, state House of Representatives and state executive council.

Who can vote

Voters registered with a political party can only vote in their party’s primary. In other words, Democrats cannot vote in Republican primaries and vice versa. Independent or undeclared voters can vote in any primary.

Decision notes

New England states report votes at the municipal level, not the county level. Municipalities are smaller subdivisions, and many cities report all or almost all of their votes at once. The Associated Press will analyze these early results and compare them to past election results, which could help determine whether they provide a clear indication of the winner.

New Hampshire counts the vast majority of votes on election night. No statewide election will be called until the last polls close at 8 p.m. Historically, fewer than 1 in 10 votes in New Hampshire are cast before Election Day because the state requires a reason to vote absentee.

The state’s largest municipalities are Manchester, Nashua, Rochester, Concord, Derry, and Salem. New Hampshire has multi-member legislative districts, with the number of representatives varying by city size, so these municipalities will have a larger number of state legislators.

Of those, Nashua, Concord and Salem are in the 2nd District. Goodlander was born and raised in Nashua, while Van Ostern lives in Concord.

AP does not make predictions and will only declare a winner if it determines there is no scenario that would allow the candidates who are behind to close the gap. If the race has not been called, AP will continue to cover any newsworthy events, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. When doing so, AP will make it clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

There is no automatic recount in New Hampshire’s state primaries, but a candidate can request and pay for a recount if the margin is 10 votes or less than 1.5% of the total votes cast. The AP can declare a winner in a race that qualifies for a recount if it determines the margin is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the result.

What does turnout and early voting look like?

As of June 28, there were about 891,000 registered voters in New Hampshire. Of those, 29% were Democrats, 34% were Republicans and 37% were independents or politically unaffiliated.

In 2022, turnout was 11% of registered voters in the state’s Democratic primary and 17% in the state’s Republican primary. About 8% of Democratic primary voters and 4% of Republican primary voters cast their ballots before primary day.

How long does it usually take to count votes?

In the 2022 primaries, the AP first reported results at 7:26 p.m. ET, 26 minutes after the first polls closed. Election night tabulation ended at 3:11 a.m. ET, with about 88% of votes counted.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there are 56 days left until the November general election.

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Robert Yoon, an Associated Press writer in Washington, contributed to this report.

Follow AP’s 2024 election coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.