Big 12 takes a break from UConn: The Fox Factor, the Huskies’ math and what it means for Washington State, OSU and Gonzaga

The commissioner who never rests is leaving. Big 12 president Brett Yormark announced Thursday that he will not pursue Connecticut’s membership invitation at this time, explaining that a “mutual” decision was made with UConn officials to “pause our discussions.”

Translation: Now is not the time for further expansion for the Big 12, but the right time may finally present itself — perhaps in 12 months, or 36.

After all, Yormark is locked in until 2030 as the Big 12 negotiates its next media rights deal. He expects basketball to play a major role in that endeavor, with UConn the top program currently not tied to a major football conference.

Yet Yormark’s presidents and athletic directors are deeply immersed in the chaotic present, in which the NCAA’s economic revolution is taking place and the issue of a billion-dollar antitrust settlement is in the spotlight.

There simply isn’t enough support to invite a basketball school that won’t add immediate value to Big 12 football results.

But Yormark’s pursuit of UConn is endlessly intriguing. And as Hotline has followed the developments in recent weeks — with deep skepticism that anything significant will materialize — three aspects of the courtship have been particularly intriguing:

• Whenever there’s a whisper of a reorganization, our thoughts turn to Fox and ESPN. As ATMs for cash-strapped athletic departments, the networks effectively run college sports (albeit passively).

As for UConn and the Big 12, we’re wondering about the situation at Fox.

The network just signed a six-year media deal with the Big East that is reportedly worth an estimated $75 million per year. Cut out the two-time defending national champions, and the conference isn’t worth what Fox plans to pay.

Sure, Fox shares Big 12 media rights with ESPN, which would certainly love to add UConn to its basketball roster. But in theory, expansion should make sense for the conference and both partners.

If the courtship turned serious, would Fox object?

• In May, the press conferences agreed to settle an antitrust lawsuit and implement a revenue-sharing model under which athletes will receive about $22 million annually.

(It’s worth noting that the settlement is in jeopardy after Thursday’s contentious hearing, which “didn’t go the way we expected,” NCAA President Charlie Baker said.)

Big 12 membership aligns with UConn’s financial needs if the Huskies plan to fund their football program at the highest level.

However, if they continue to prefer basketball and treat American football as a second-class citizen, then the dictates will change.

UConn basketball (Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Duke, etc.) can’t invest $20 million in revenue sharing with basketball players. Football will get by far the biggest boost.

Theoretically, the Huskies would need $4 million to $6 million annually to fund competitive basketball. And they don’t need the Big 12’s money to achieve that goal.

Like Gonzaga, the Huskies would gain a competitive advantage if they abandoned playing American football or continued to disregard it.

• College sports are becoming increasingly intertwined, with the latest example being the Big 12’s partnership with UConn.

So we wonder: Is Yormark’s “pause” good, bad, or neither for Washington State and Oregon State?

Our gut feeling: This is certainly not bad news for Pac-12 schools and can be viewed as a positive development.

It is obvious that from an optical point of view the break is advantageous.

Any reorganization that happens without WSU and OSU pushes them lower in the perceived hierarchy. They have already been left behind once. If another wave came and went without them, it would further damage their reputation.

There’s also a practical consideration: Adding UConn to bolster the Big 12’s basketball brand could boost domestic support for Gonzaga as the 18th member.

If the Zags join the team — whether the move comes in one, three or five years — the move would destroy any hopes of the Cougars and Beavers joining the Big 12.

(Not that there’s any hope of such a scenario coming true under the circumstances.)

The Cougars and Beavers want chaos, but it has to be the right kind of chaos.

They want disruption in the ACC, with Florida State and Clemson looking for a fallback that could, perhaps, lead to the conference expanding its presence in the Pacific Time Zone.

Summary: Washington State and Oregon State have a narrow path to the Power Four. That was true the day they fell behind and it remains true today.

But if we evaluate the full range of possibilities that the future holds over the next few years, it seems like the Big 12 would be better off calling it quits on UConn.