President Harris’ Scenario: Steady State Climate Ambitions Face a Bumpy Road Ahead

Harris would have to tread carefully the delicate balance between energy transition, energy security, and market stability. That will remain difficult, given the heightened political polarization, rising living costs, and the U.S.’s role as the world’s largest exporter of oil and gas. So, as we’ve discussed before, we wouldn’t expect Harris to take an extreme approach to the oil and gas industry—indeed, she’s already indicated she no longer supports a ban on fracking.

U.S. oil production will likely continue to reach record levels regardless of who is in the White House, as we have seen over the past few presidencies. We will also likely see Harris be wary of new bans on LNG export licensing, as the January ban was already overturned by a federal judge and would similarly be struck down by the Supreme Court.

Instead, a Harris administration could try to implement policies that require oil and gas companies to pay more royalties for drilling on federal lands or tighten regulations on charging for methane emissions. Harris could even try to reduce current subsidies to oil and gas companies, as the Democratic Party’s website recently pointed out. However, the latter policy could prove difficult to implement due to the stubbornness of the existing system and the strong lobbying power of the oil and gas industry, especially if the Democratic Party does not control Congress.