As people continue to migrate to Alaska, community members consider ways to respond

As Alaskans from various organizations gathered at the University of Alaska Anchorage to ponder ways to reverse the state’s ongoing population outflow, one of the state’s top economists gave them some bad news.

Dan Robinson, head of research at the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, revealed that the latest data shows that over the past 12 years, more people have left the island than have arrived in Alaska.

This is unprecedented, he said.

“This is not normal for us. This has never happened before,” Robinson said Thursday at the start of the two-day meeting.

The longest series to date lasted four years, he added.

Robinson spoke at an event organized by Rep. Mary Peltola, D-Alaska, the UAA Institute for Social and Economic Research, the Alaska Federation of Natives and the First Alaskans Institute

He added that there are specific patterns behind the migration statistics.

The driver isn’t really Alaskans leaving, he said. In 2023, 40,924 people moved out of the state, fewer than in any year since 2010, according to department data. He said it’s more about the lack of people coming to Alaska. Less is known about them than about their neighbors moving out, he said. “It’s harder to tell stories about the people who aren’t coming,” he said.

The age of those who don’t come to Alaska is particularly important, Robinson said. “Historically, our biggest net gains have been in the late 20s and early 30s,” he said. That’s partly because of the military and partly because Alaska is “an adventure destination,” he said.

Adding to the lack of new young adults in Alaska is the continuing phenomenon of Alaska students leaving the state to attend schools in the Lower 48, he said. The result is less economic vitality, he said. “That’s not a healthy sign,” he said.

Even before the current wave of emigration began, the ebb and flow of Alaska’s population had been the subject of much study. This research was supported by a unique Alaskan institution: the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend. Receipt of this annual payment is a common metric for determining Alaskan residency.

Mike Jones, assistant professor of economics at ISER, discussed some of the findings about Alaska’s population over the years.

In Alaska, factors influencing rural-to-urban or inter-rural migration include dependence on successful subsistence food harvests, availability of water and sanitation, and violent crime rates, according to previous studies.

In urban Alaska, certain patterns can also be observed.

The population decline in Alaska’s largest city is most likely due to a reduction in military personnel, according to a new analysis published in Alaska Economic Trends, a monthly research arm of the Department of Labor and Workforce Development.

The Anchorage outflow over the past 14 years was largely due to downsizing at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, the analysis found. The joint U.S. Air Force and U.S. Army base lost more than 2,600 people from 2010 to 2023, more than Anchorage’s total loss of 2,173 during the same period, according to the analysis.

Meanwhile, Alaska’s long-term overall demographic outlook appears grim. State demographers in their latest forecast predict a population decline by mid-century, driven by out-migration, falling birth rates and an aging population.

During a break in the sessions, Peltola said she was inspired to help organize the event after widespread concerns about the decline of Alaska’s working-age population.

She added that during her two years in office, as she traveled and spoke with people from different communities, industries and sectors, she heard similar repeated words about demographic trends in Alaska.

“Everyone is worried about emigration and there not being enough people in the labour market to draw from,” she said.

In addition to the state residents and newcomers Alaska once attracted, she noted, the country has long relied on foreign workers who have special permits, known as J-1 visas, that allow them to work in seasonal industries.

Now, the need for J-1 workers seems more acute — and employers are looking for them even for winter work, she said. She touched on that in her opening remarks.

“We need J-1 visas more than anyone else because we need foreigners to come in and help us fill our sectors,” she said in her opening speech.

The J-1 visa program has long been used to fill seasonal positions in Alaska industries such as fishing and tourism, but recently other sectors, such as education, have been looking to hire workers with such visas.

Peltola’s primary opponent in the election, Republican Nick Begich, attacked the Biden-Harris administration for its immigration policies — and linked Peltola to those policies.

His campaign office did not immediately provide information on his views on reversing the ongoing emigration from Alaska. However, the Republican National Congressional Committee on Thursday criticized Peltola’s comments about J-1 visa workers in Alaska.

“It’s no wonder Mary Peltola aided and abetted Biden and Harris in inciting this historic border crisis. Peltola believes foreigners should be holding positions in Alaska, not Americans,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Ben Peterson said in an emailed statement.

Originally Posted By Alaska Lighthousean independent, nonpartisan news organization that reports on Alaska state government.