Deal or No Deal? Antitrust Prediction in the Next Administration

As the November election approaches, Wall Street is predicting what the dealmaking environment will look like under the next administration. Both the Trump and Biden presidencies have intensified antitrust scrutiny, and while dealmakers don’t expect enforcement to go away, they are hopeful the new president will provide some relief from current competition policy and enforcement.

Although Republican administrations are traditionally seen as more business-friendly, Trump’s FTC and DOJ have increasingly scrutinized deals, using aggressive theories like vertical deal harm and acquisition of potential and nascent competitors. Under Biden, who has proudly made antitrust enforcement a hallmark of his term, the agencies have become even more hawkish. The FTC and DOJ’s Antitrust Division under Biden, led by Lina Khan and Jonathan Kanter, respectively, have increased their deal-making burdens, roughly doubling the average number of stop-deal complaints filed each year compared with the agencies’ filings under the Trump administration.