Mike Johnson faces leadership test as spending deadline looms

CNN
—

Chairman Mike Johnson has a decision to make.

With elections approaching and another government funding deadline, the chairman must find a way to govern the country in the next few days, avoid a government shutdown that could cost his members in undecided constituencies, and keep his party’s right wing calm enough not to jeopardize his own political future.

It’s a balancing act he has repeatedly navigated in the past year, during disputes over government funding, over aid to Ukraine and over the reauthorization of a key national security program. But this time, Johnson’s course could determine whether he can keep his leadership post after the election.

“I don’t think he’s thinking about his job as speaker first. I think he’s thinking about (the future of) the country first. But let’s be honest. That’s a very difficult needle to thread for him,” Rep. Lisa McClain, a Michigan Republican, told CNN.

While many of his allies are optimistic about House Republicans’ chances of holding the chamber in November, they acknowledge there are still many variables that need to play out. If Republicans hold the House, Johnson will need 218 votes to become speaker in January, a big boost if Johnson once again has a slim or even reduced majority.

Johnson, for his part, has maintained his widespread popularity. Even many Republicans who once privately questioned whether Johnson was too inexperienced for the job say he has quickly settled into it, taking a position on the right wing and handling leadership challenges his predecessor could not stomach.

“It’s just hard from my perspective, no matter how this fight goes, if we go back to a majority, it’s hard to make the argument that he shouldn’t be speaker,” said Rep. Drew Ferguson, a Georgia Republican.

There is also the possibility that the Republicans will lose the House of Representatives. Then Johnson would have to convince the majority that he is still ready to take on the conference leadership position as minority leader, an easier math problem that requires only a simple majority vote but that could be complicated by a challenger if the Republicans lose by a landslide.

“When you lose the Superbowl by two, you fire the coach,” one GOP aide lamented of Johnson’s future if the Republicans suffer a big defeat.

Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, one of Johnson’s leading critics, warned that she did not think Johnson would remain in power if Republicans lost the House elections.

“That has yet to be determined, but, you know, based on what I’ve heard, and I won’t name names, members, I don’t think it’s going to happen,” she said.

On Wednesday, Johnson announced he was withdrawing a GOP bill that would have funded the government for six months and included the SAVE Act, a bill that would require proof of citizenship to register to vote. The bill had been on the brink of defeat after at least eight House Republicans publicly said they would not support it. But Johnson said he would continue to try to build support for the bill.

“We’re in the business of building consensus in Congress. In small majorities, that’s what you do,” Johnson told reporters.

While Johnson has maintained he intends to continue to build support for the plan, there is no indication that dynamic will change, forcing the Louisiana Republican to consider other options.

If Johnson needs to build bipartisan consensus to get the funding bill through, as he has had to repeatedly, Democratic leaders warn he will have to abandon his direct link to the SAVE Act. But whether Johnson will budge on the six-month spending bill remains an open question, in part because it could open a much easier path for his future.

Postponing the next spending showdown until March could save Johnson from having to pass a massive year-end spending bill in December and then convince radicals that he should keep the gavel of the Speaker of the House.

Maintaining control of the House could give him a victory on which to base his campaign, but there are several Republicans, including Greene, who challenged Johnson’s position as House speaker in the spring and who have already publicly expressed their displeasure with Johnson.

“I think he’s going to have a really tough time,” Greene told CNN of Johnson’s chances of winning the gavel again if he strikes a spending deal with Democrats. “Eleven of my colleagues voted with me to overturn the motion. But you’re seeing a lot of my colleagues who weren’t part of that 11 now turn on him with the CR Act and the SAVE Act because they know what’s on the wall.”

Getting Democrats to sign on to a March deadline would be a tough sell to Johnson. Many Democrats want to clear the deck for a potential Harris administration, and the Biden administration has warned that a six-month continuing resolution could have devastating effects on military readiness and even the Department of Veterans Affairs, which is facing a $12 billion shortfall in the new fiscal year. A December funding bill would also give Biden one last chance to include other legacy items that often appear in a massive year-end spending bill.

The next few days will be crucial for Johnson and he will need to remain cautious.

“I think he’s doing the best job he can with the tight margins that we have. It’s such a tight schedule. I mean, to me, it’s a job that he has, and I wouldn’t want it,” Rep. Beth Van Duyne, a Texas Republican, told CNN.

The next few weeks could go a few ways. Johnson could decide to pivot quickly after Wednesday toward a plan to move a short-term spending bill to March that abandons the SAVE Act to win Democratic votes.

On the other hand, Senate Democrats could move quickly to force Johnson into action by proposing a short-term spending bill that would last only through December and challenge Johnson to reject it, risking a government shutdown just months before the election.

“He’s in the majority, so he’s got to figure out the right combination,” Senator John Cornyn, a Texas Republican, told CNN of Johnson’s calculations. “It’s kind of like a Rubik’s Cube.”