How could Manchester City be punished if they lose their 115-count Premier League case?

This is an updated version of an article first published on May 20, 2024.

Another season, another quest for supremacy. But a dark cloud still hangs over a Premier League sky that has turned blue thanks to Manchester City winning six of the last seven titles, refusing to budge.

The incredible success of Pep Guardiola’s side is being tainted by 115 charges issued by the Premier League in February 2023. The scope of the alleged financial breaches is unparalleled in English football and, if proven, could tarnish the empire built during Sheikh Mansour’s years of ownership.

City vehemently denies the alleged financial charges, which spanned nine seasons of growth, but must wait to clear its name before an independent commission that began a long-awaited and potentially seismic hearing today at the International Centre for Dispute Resolution in central London. A final verdict, however, is still a long way off.

In connection with the commencement of an extremely important case in the City, Athletic examines how the protracted saga could end.

---

How did we get here

This incredibly long process began five years ago, in March 2019, when Theresa May was British Prime Minister and Erling Haaland was still a rookie player at Red Bull Salzburg.

It was at this point that the Premier League confirmed it was opening an investigation into Manchester City based on information revealed in Football Leaks by German newspaper Der Spiegel.

The full breakdown of these figures is best explained in detail here, but City are alleged to have been funneling money into the club via inflated sponsorship deals with UAE-based companies, and also concealing some costs by failing to record wages or image rights payments.

UEFA didn’t need that long for its own investigation when it banned City from competition for two years and fined them €30m (£26m) for breaching Financial Fair Play (FFP) rules in February 2020. However, a subsequent appeal to the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) led to the suspension being overturned and the fine being reduced to €10m.

The city said the decision was “a confirmation of the club’s position and the evidence it was able to present”.

Throughout, City have done everything they can to avoid a Premier League investigation. The club’s legal team challenged the jurisdiction of the Premier League referees and also opposed the disclosure request. City did not want it to be made public, but lost the case at the Court of Appeal in the summer of 2021.

All roads eventually led to February 6, 2023 (588 days ago and counting), when the Premier League announced that 115 allegations against City had been referred to an independent commission. City responded by saying they had a “comprehensive body of compelling evidence” that proved they had done nothing wrong.

In the past 18 months, Everton (twice) and Nottingham Forest have both been fined and had points deducted for breaching the Premier League’s PSR rules, but the wait continues in City’s wider case.

“I imagine they’ll make it as difficult as possible,” says one sports lawyer, who, like everyone in this article, spoke anonymously to protect labor relations. “To me, that timescale isn’t surprising.”

Premier League chief executive Richard Masters confirmed in January that a trial date had been set, and in April he added that the long-standing case would be resolved “in the near future”. That date has finally arrived.

Away from the Etihad Stadium, where Guardiola’s side reign as the dominant side in English football, the trial has been quietly ongoing throughout last season and into the summer, with gruelling preparations for the trial, with evidence and numerous witness statements being gathered and rebutted.

The city is sparing no expense. Their defense is led by David Pannick, the highly regarded — and well-paid — CC of Blackstone Chambers.

Lord Pannick KC in 2016 (Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)

The lack of transparency in the case may have irritated many football fans, but as with any disciplinary matter referred to the committee by the Premier League, the English Football League (EFL) or the Football Association (FA), it is part of a confidential process. The final result published by the Premier League – whenever that may be – will be the next official moment we hear about it.

So what might that look like? Let’s look at the possibilities here…

---

Scenario A: Acquittal

Perhaps it’s the gravity of the charges that suggests a certain level of culpability, but this is a club that has steadfastly denied any defensive wrongdoing, unwavering since his conduct was first brought to light. The bullish belief is that all charges against him will be dropped. “We look forward to putting an end to this matter once and for all,” they said in February 2023.

‘I’ve never seen a group of people more confident that they have nothing to answer for than Manchester City,’ says former Premier League chief executive Athletic.

City can point to their CAS appeal victory in 2020 as “vindication” of their position, with their two-year ban from UEFA competitions overturned, allowing them to continue their quest for a first Champions League title, which they eventually won last season.

CAS ruled that most of the alleged financial breaches were “not established or time-barred”, with UEFA rules stating that prosecutions can only be based on offences committed in the last five years. However, the Premier League has no such time limit, as some of the allegations City currently face date back to the 2009-10 season. The strength of the evidence presented by the Premier League, likely related to the Football Leaks revelations, will be key.

“Their argument is that they did things that would be wrong under current law,” the former CEO adds. “But under the law that was in place at the time and the way they reported the information, they believe it was all legal.

“They may be penalized because they didn’t take something into account, but they’re confident that when it comes to the big things that they think would be wrong in today’s market but would be okay under a different set of rules than back then, they won’t be penalized.”

City will finally be able to move on. Their Premier League rivals, however, may not be so keen to forget.

---

Scenario B: Settlement Agreement

There has long been a theory that this case would not go to trial and that after much turmoil the Premier League and Manchester City would reach a settlement agreement to draw the line at the seams. It was thought that a compromise could be a retrospective fine, sparing City the danger of much worse things and also allowing them to avoid a formal admission of guilt.

A settlement could also prevent wider political problems. The UK government has admitted that Athletic that the British Embassy in Abu Dhabi and the Foreign and Commonwealth Development Office (FCDO) in London have discussed allegations made against Manchester City by the Premier League but are refusing to release the correspondence because it could damage UK relations with the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

However, as time went on, it seemed increasingly unlikely that a deal would be reached, and it happened. Neither side has batted an eyelid in the months leading up to this point, with City even opening a new case in their legal battles against the Premier League over affiliated party transactions (APT) regulations this summer.

It is not a fight they wanted to run away from, and the consensus among sports lawyers is that it will be a fight that will be fought to the bitter end.

---

Scenario C: Point deduction and nuclear option of relegation

So imagine that spring comes and City fail to defend themselves against all 115 charges. A penalty will be inevitable – and Guardiola, for one, believes their Premier League rivals are desperate for one – but what that will look like is the big unknown.

All of this would shape which and how many charges City would be found guilty of. And there are some serious ones.

In addition to alleged breaches of the PSR in 2015-16 and 2017-18, there are allegations of City failing to provide accurate financial information and details of payments made to players and staff.

Der Spiegel, using information from Football Leaks, alleged in 2018 that City had manipulated sponsorship deals to help comply with UEFA’s FFP rules, with additional money also being paid to manager Roberto Mancini via another club owned by City owner Sheikh Mansour in Abu Dhabi. Mancini has always denied any wrongdoing.

City have always called the Football Leaks revelations a “clear and organised” attempt to damage their reputation, but if confirmed, the breaches would effectively have allowed the club to spend more than it was permitted to build a squad that would win its first Premier League title in 2011-12 and lay the foundations for further successes in the years that followed.

“If the Football Leaks documents are true, it will be difficult to find a defense against some of these allegations,” explains a sports lawyer.

“The Everton and Nottingham Forest cases gave us some pretty strong indications last season. The verdicts gave the clubs credit for admitting the breaches, but they can’t do that here. If the end result is that Man City are found guilty, they didn’t cooperate, they didn’t admit it and they exposed the Premier League to all the costs of fighting it for years, there would be no mitigating circumstances, only aggravating circumstances.”

Any decision made by the three-person panel would be subject to appeal, but its almost unlimited disciplinary powers leave all outcomes on the table. Potential penalties are outlined in rule W.51 of the Premier League handbook and range from fines to points deductions – or even expulsion from the Premier League.

“You would have to think the penalty would be absolutely massive,” said one sports lawyer, who spoke on condition of anonymity to protect his relationship. “It wouldn’t just be an exaggeration to be banned from the Premier League. It would be a realistic outcome if they were found guilty of the charges.”

“On the other hand, if some of the allegations, like the one involving Mancini, are not as obvious as people think and we are talking about multiple PSR breaches, then there could be a 30-point penalty.

“There are probably four possible outcomes: acquittal, a huge fine and a small points deduction, a huge points deduction or being thrown out of the league. But we don’t know that without looking at the in-depth evidence. And just because someone has been charged 115 times doesn’t mean they’re guilty.”

Ultimately, others will have to judge this.

(Top photo: Matt McNulty/Getty Images)