The New Democratic Party (NDP) faces a tight race in the Winnipeg byelection as it tries to fend off emboldened Conservatives

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Federal New Democrats will face a tougher-than-expected race to reclaim one of their long-held Winnipeg seats next week as the Conservative Party deploys a new tactic aimed at tying NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Elmwood-Transcona has remained orange in every but one case since its creation in the 1980s. But three-term NDP MP Daniel Blaikie forced a byelection in the riding when he resigned earlier this year to work for Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew. His departure, at a time when the Conservatives are riding high in the polls, is raising hopes among some Tories that they could retake the seat, as they did in 2011 when Stephen Harper won a majority government.

The race has turned into what two senior NDP officials in the province have described as a dogfight. At the federal level, a senior NDP official acknowledged that Mr. Singh’s party is in a tight race, but the official said it is also a must-win seat and they believe they have won their vote in early polls and have a strong field on Monday.

The Globe and Mail is not identifying those who were not permitted to publicly discuss the campaign.

While the vote in Elmwood-Transcona would have no impact on the incumbent Liberals, who are not in the race, the Conservatives’ campaign tactics attempt to blur any lines between the Liberals and the New Democrats.

This year’s election banners also included a black-and-white image of Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Singh shaking hands against an orange background.

“Vote No to Singh’s NDP-Trudeau Sellout Carbon Tax,” reads a sign that appears on many lawns in the riding.

Over the summer, the Conservatives stepped up their attacks on the NDP over their agreement to automatically support the minority Liberals on confidence issues in the House of Commons in exchange for policy concessions. Just two days before early voting began last week in both the Winnipeg byelection and the Montreal riding of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, the NDP announced it was ending the deal.

The Manitoba constituency is important to the New Democrats, in part because it has a similar working-class demographic to other ridings the party represents in B.C.’s Lower Mainland and around Hamilton, said Andrew Enns, executive vice-president of Winnipeg-based research firm Leger.

He said that while Mr. Trudeau’s political fortunes dominate the national conversation, the same trends that are hurting the Liberals are hurting the NDP. With the Conservatives at 45 per cent support in a Leger poll released this week, many of the New Democrats’ 24 seats are at risk across the country.

“The race at Elmwood-Transcona, which is a close one right now, will be a testament to that,” Enns said.

The electoral district in the city’s northeast corner is in many ways a microcosm of the Winnipeg electorate. A short drive from the city center, it includes mostly residential communities across a range of income ranges.

Some recently developed areas are filled with large single-family homes, and the latest census data suggest household incomes are around $81,000. However, on an individual basis, nearly a third of the county’s population are residents in craft and manufacturing occupations, earning about $41,000.

On the ground, voters are so divided that banners for New Democratic Party and Conservative Party candidates, as well as those attacking Mr. Singh, alternate on lawns and porches along the same street.

Maddie Gauthier, 32, is one of the residents carrying a “Sellout Singh” sign. Upset about the high cost of living, which she blames on Mr. Trudeau, Ms. Gauthier and her husband, Chris, said they would vote for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre rather than the local candidate.

“I know how much I dislike Trudeau. My vote is my way of getting Trudeau out and Poilievre in,” she said.

A number of her neighbours agree, including Joshua Friesen, who said he did not believe Mr Singh was “better” than Mr Trudeau.

But Simone-Anne Toews, 37, who supports the NDP, said the signs on her street make her angry. “I really don’t know how to get over the fact that some of my neighbours don’t believe climate change is real and think carbon pricing is a bad thing. Just look at the weather today,” she said, referring to the smoke from the wildfires filling the city.

Conservative Party candidate Colin Reynolds declined to be interviewed, but New Democratic Party candidate Leila Dance, a former executive director of the Transcona local business development zone, said she was disappointed by the personal attacks on Mr Singh.

Ms Dance said she was not at the table when the NDP struck a deal with the Liberals and could not shed light on it, but promised to “vote how I feel”.

Ian MacIntyre, the Liberal candidate in the race, defended Mr Trudeau and said he was “tired of people putting all the blame on him”.

“It’s so easy to say it’s all his fault,” he said, but noted that the government is implementing policies in response. “Affordability doesn’t happen overnight,” he said in an interview.

The NDP’s federal hopes for the constituency are being boosted by the popularity of NDP Premier Mr. Kinew. While he was there for Ms. Dance’s Labor Day march, he did not campaign with her in any other way. His photo and endorsement are still on her campaign materials, and a federal NDP official said Mr. Kinew signed off on a voicemail that will be sent to the constituency before Monday’s vote, urging residents to support Ms. Dance.

Each federal party is allocated a maximum budget for two by-elections, but while the NDP must split that budget between races in Winnipeg and Montreal, the Conservatives only have a chance to win the Manitoba race, meaning they can spend their entire budget on one campaign.

In a sign of the party’s seriousness about the race, a longtime associate of Mr. Poilievre’s and one of his most confidants, Jeremy Liedtke, has come to Winnipeg to help with the local campaign, two federal Conservative sources said.

The Globe is not disclosing the identities of these individuals because they did not have permission to disclose internal personnel decisions.