Analysis – EU Commissioner’s withdrawal shows Macron’s influence in Europe is declining

By Michel Rose

PARIS (Reuters) – French President Emmanuel Macron has weakened his position on the European stage after agreeing to step down to Ursula von der Leyen and sacrifice his top candidate for the European Commission post, Thierry Breton, experts said.

Breton abruptly resigned on Monday, with harsh words for re-elected EU chief von der Leyen, an unexpected twist in the highly political transition of power that followed June’s European elections.

Although Macron’s supporters say he has secured a more influential role for his successor, Stéphane Séjourné, a close Macron supporter, it is becoming clear that the biggest winner from this swap is von der Leyen, who won the fight against Macron.

Von der Leyen on Tuesday named a new “college” of commissioners — the team that will lead the European Union’s most powerful institution for the next five years. Each of the bloc’s 27 member states has one seat at the table.

“The president (von der Leyen) intends to lead… alone,” Jean-Dominique Giuliani, president of the Robert Schuman Foundation think tank, wrote in a memo.

“There is no room for free spirits in her college, which explains the resignation of Thierry Breton,” he added. “The weakened French president did not feel he should fight to impose it, and that is truly a shame.”

Breton, 69, a former French finance minister with extensive experience as CEO of French blue-chip companies, has over the past five years become a key figure in the European Commission – and von der Leyen’s main rival.

He made headlines for his public feud with tech billionaire Elon Musk and for playing a key role in shaping EU rules on big tech companies, the EU’s response to the COVID vaccine and efforts to bolster the arms industry.

The two parties have clashed publicly on several occasions, with Breton helping to torpedo von der Leyen’s decision to give a highly paid EU job to a member of her party, the German CDU.

But until last week, his reappointment was expected, having been publicly confirmed in June by Macron, who had given von der Leyen his support for her re-election in exchange for a large economic portfolio, sources close to Macron say.

ELECTIONS IN FRANCE CHANGED THE BALANCE OF POWER

Only after returning to Brussels from her summer vacation on August 19 did von der Leyen tell Macron that she would not give France the large portfolio he was asking for unless it gave up Breton, diplomatic sources told Reuters.

By then it had already gained the upper hand and its support from EU lawmakers was already certain.

Macron, on the other hand, was embroiled in intractable talks with French politicians, trying to find a way to decide who would become prime minister given the hung parliament that his failed attempt to call early general elections had created.

“She struck with Machiavellian timing,” an EU diplomat told Reuters.

Her team declined to comment on Breton.

The concession on Breton would mean a loss of influence for Macron, who played a key role in electing von der Leyen five years ago and shaped the bloc’s programme.

People close to Macron say that all that mattered to him was what ministry France would have in the new commission, and that while he still had complete confidence in Breton, the identity of the commissioner came second.

Séjourné, the outgoing foreign minister, will retain Breton’s main task of managing an important sector of the economy, with access to new “financial tools” that are currently scattered across other portfolios, according to people close to him.

He will also receive the title of executive vice president and will oversee a group of four commissioners.

But EU insiders say what matters most in Brussels is the number of directorates-general – the equivalent of ministerial departments – under direct control.

Breton had three of them and Séjourné only one, although French officials say he will also “supervise” commissioners from among himself.

“It’s fancy,” said one Brussels resident. “The title doesn’t matter. Everything in Brussels is a matter of power dynamics. You have to have direct control over the bureaucracy and a very strong personality to get things going.”

Séjourné was one of the strategists behind Macron’s success, but has yet to make a name for himself in public positions such as foreign minister.

At 39, he doesn’t have the experience of running a large company or a large bureaucracy that Breton did, and he can’t claim to enjoy the same respect from the world’s most senior chief executives, a position his critics say will be tested by Musk and others.

Some experts say the EU will lack Breton’s ability to act effectively on political issues.

“This is exactly what Europe, and especially European defense, did not need,” geopolitical analyst François Heisbourg told X.

“While I am not a huge fan of Thierry Breton, it is a fact that he brought a lot of energy and expertise to the development of EU arms procurement policy,” Heisbourg said.

(Reporting: Michel Rose; Editing: Alex Richardson)