Hurt by fresh defeat, Canada’s Trudeau shows no signs of backing down

The Liberals, who have been in power for almost nine years, suffered a narrow defeat Monday in the Montreal constituency, which had been one of the party’s safest seats

Reuters Agency

September 18, 2024, 09:55

Last Modified: September 18, 2024, 09:56

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks during Question Time in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, September 16, 2024. REUTERS/Blair Gable/File photo

“>

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks during Question Time in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, September 16, 2024. REUTERS/Blair Gable/File photo

Doubts about Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership have intensified after the ruling Liberal Party suffered a second humiliating byelection defeat. But the unpopular leader is determined to stay in office ahead of the upcoming national election.

The Liberals, who have been in power for almost nine years, suffered a narrow defeat on Monday in the Montreal constituency, which had been one of the party’s safest seats.

The defeat, following a defeat in Toronto in late June, reinforced the belief that the Liberals’ prospects in another national election are dim. Trudeau’s minority government’s term ends at the end of October 2025, but an early election has become increasingly likely after the smaller New Democratic Party lost support.

Still, Trudeau showed no signs Tuesday that he might step down before the next election campaign. And the party’s mechanisms to force him to leave are limited.

Andrew McDougall, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Toronto, said the Liberals were losing their “crown jewels” in urban strongholds rather than marginal ridings, underscoring the party’s bleak outlook.

“This is obviously a very difficult moment for Justin Trudeau,” McDougall said. “It seems to reinforce the narrative that he is yesterday’s man and that if the Liberals are going to win the next election, they are going to have to do it with someone else.”

Although polls suggest the Liberals will lose to the official opposition, the right-wing Conservatives, in the next election because of dissatisfaction with inflation and the housing crisis, Trudeau and his closest aides say he has no intention of going anywhere and has time to help the party revive.

“Of course, it would be nice to win … but there’s a lot more to do and we’re going to focus on that,” Trudeau told reporters on Tuesday.

His main immediate challenge is losing control of the House of Commons, where the Liberals have only a minority of seats. The left-wing NDP signed a deal in 2022 to keep the Liberals in power but this month scrapped the deal.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) increased its vote share in Montreal while retaining its seat in western Manitoba, fending off stiff competition from the Conservatives.

The Liberals face a vote of confidence from lawmakers in the next few months, and a defeat would necessitate an election, although the NDP could opt to maintain government until it can regain popularity.

“The Liberals have given both opposition parties reason to believe they can beat Trudeau,” said Darrell Bricker, CEO of polling firm Ipsos-Reid. “The potential for them to trigger (an election) early is certainly there.”

Maintaining a minority government could be difficult, and it is unclear to what extent Trudeau will be able to implement his legislative agenda.

The Liberals said Monday they would focus on defense and citizenship legislation.

SPECIAL CONVENTION

Unlike in the United States, where President Joe Biden dropped out of the Democratic presidential race in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris, Trudeau has no easy way to hand over power.

In Australia and the UK, prime ministers are elected by legislators and can be quickly overthrown. Trudeau was elected by a special convention of party members and cannot be forced to leave if he wants to stay.

One senior Liberal said that if polls continue to show poor results, senior ministers may insist that Trudeau quit.

But the Liberal, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the situation, said there was no guarantee Trudeau – a stubborn man, according to sources – would listen.

Bricker said Liberal Party fundraisers could make the same offer to Trudeau.

“If they run out of money, they won’t be able to fight,” he said.

If Trudeau steps down, an interim leader will be elected and the party will hold another convention.

Tradition dictates that the alternate be a member of the legislature, excluding former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, who is often mentioned as a potential successor to Trudeau.

The interim leader is not running to be a permanent successor, as is party custom. That could deter cabinet heavyweights like Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and Innovation Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne from trying to replace Trudeau in the short term.

Regardless, a leadership change won’t necessarily improve the Liberals’ prospects, said Frank Graves, president of polling firm Ekos.

“The difficulties Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals face are largely similar to those faced by progressive officials in other advanced Western democracies,” he wrote in an email, citing rising populism and economic uncertainty.