The world now has five times more PV than nuclear power – pv magazine USA

September 19, 2024 Emiliano Bellini

From pv magazine Global

The World Nuclear Industry Status Report (WNISR) 2024, overseen by French nuclear consultant Mycle Schneider, shows that global installed photovoltaic capacity is now almost five times greater than that of nuclear power.

“The role of an annual report like the WNISR is to identify existing trends that have continued over the previous year, as well as potential events that represent a break from previous trends or are simply exceptional events,” said the report’s lead author, Mycle Schneider. pv magazine“In addition, WNISR seeks to identify events that otherwise may not attract much attention.”

He also said the WNISR confirmed the trends of recent years in terms of key indicators: nuclear production increased slightly in 2023 but is still below the levels of 2021 and 2019; the number of operating units stood at 408 in mid-2024, one more than a year ago but 30 fewer than at the peak in 2002, while installed capacity rose to a new record (slightly +0.3 GW) above the 2006 record.

“Similarly, as of mid-2024, the world had one more reactor under construction, but three fewer countries were under construction – the US, the UAE, Brazil,” he added. “That means the largest country operating in the nuclear sector, the US, has not a single reactor under construction, and no utility in the country has applied for a license to build a large reactor. The only application for a license to build one was sent to the US regulator for Bill Gates’s small fantasy Natrium reactor, the design of which has not even been licensed yet.”

The report reveals that at the end of June, there were 408 reactors operating worldwide, producing 367 GW of electricity, which compares with about 1.6 TW of photovoltaic power at the end of 2023 and likely about 1.9 TW at the end of June, given the latest forecasts from BloombergNEF and Bernreuter Researchers, which predict 592 GW and 660 GW this year, respectively.

The report also indicated that only Last year, five new nuclear reactors with a total capacity of 5 GW were launched in Belarus, China, Slovakia, South Korea and the US, and it added that this small increase was not enough to increase the global active capacity of nuclear power plants, as five more plants with a total capacity of 6 GW were closed in Germany, Belgium and Taiwan.

“In the two decades from 2004 to 2023, 102 startups were created and 104 were shut down,” the report notes. Of those, 49 startups were located in China and did not shut down any reactors. As a result, outside China There was a drastic net decline of 51 units over the same period, with net capacity decreasing by 26.4 GW.”

The report also said that at the end of June, 59 nuclear power plants with a capacity of 60 GW were under construction in 13 countries, compared with 64 in 2023. China accounts for about 46% of the total, with 27 projects currently under construction.

“All reactors under construction in at least nine of the 13 building countries have experienced delays, often lasting a year,” the report’s authors said. “Of the 23 reactors documented as delayed, at least 10 have reported increased delays, and two have been reported as delayed for the first time in the past year.”

The authors also refer to data from investment bank Lazard reveals that solar plus storage could already be cheaper than peak gas and new nuclear. “The competitive cost and large-scale availability of variable renewables, combined with strengthening options — especially storage — could prove to be a game-changer for energy policy in the coming years,” they explain.

The report also examines the current trajectory of so-called small modular reactors (SMRs), which promise to be next-generation power plants despite their extremely limited development to date.“The gap between SMR hype and industrial reality continues to grow,” the authors say. “The nuclear industry and many governments are doubling down on their financial and political investments in SMRs. So far, the reality on the ground does not reflect these efforts: with no design certificates, no construction in the West, SMR projects continue to be delayed or canceled.”

The authors conclude that despite the widespread belief that nuclear power is regaining popularity, it is becoming “irrelevant” in the global market.“Combining solar power with energy storage could prove to be a game-changer in adapting policy decisions to current industrial realities,” they said.