Is Israel preparing for war with Hezbollah?

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As fighting in Gaza has slowed, Israel has been beefing up forces along its border with Lebanon, including this week when a powerful army division that has seen some of the heaviest fighting in Gaza arrived.

By JULIA FRANKEL, Associated Press

September 19, 2024 | 8:32 AM

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel’s defense minister has declared a “new phase” in the war, and an Israeli attack has exploded electronic devices in Lebanon, leaving the specter of an all-out fight between Israel and Hezbollah looming closer than ever.

Hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict appear to be fading fast as Israel signals a desire to change the status quo in the north of the country, where there has been an exchange of fire with Hezbollah since the Lebanese armed group launched an attack on Oct. 8, a day after Hamas launched the war.

In recent days, Israel has deployed massive combat forces to its northern border, authorities have toughened their rhetoric and the government’s security cabinet has declared the return of tens of thousands of displaced people to their homes in northern Israel an official war goal.

Here’s how Israel is preparing for war with Lebanon:

Troops pulled from Gaza to northern border

Even though daily fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has escalated several times, the bitter enemies have tried to avoid all-out war.

That appears to be changing — especially after pagers, walkie-talkies and other devices exploded in Lebanon on Tuesday and Wednesday, killing at least 20 people and wounding thousands in a sophisticated attack that Hezbollah blamed on Israel.

“You don’t do something like this, hit thousands of people, and think war isn’t coming,” said retired Israeli Brigadier General Amir Avivi, who heads the Israel Defense and Security Forum, a group of hawkish former military commanders. “Why didn’t we do this for 11 months? Because we weren’t ready for war yet. What’s happening now? Israel is ready for war.”

As fighting in Gaza has slowed, Israel has been beefing up forces along its border with Lebanon, including this week when a powerful army division that has seen some of the heaviest fighting in Gaza arrived.

The 98th is believed to include thousands of troops, including paratroopers, artillery and elite commando forces specially trained for operations behind enemy lines. Their deployment was confirmed by an official with knowledge of the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss troop movements.

The division played a key role in Gaza, spearheading army operations in the southern city of Khan Younis, a Hamas stronghold. The offensive inflicted heavy losses on Hamas fighters and tunnels, but also caused massive damage, forced thousands of Palestinians to flee and led to the deaths of many civilians. Israel says Hamas is endangering civilians by hiding in residential areas.

The military also said it had conducted a series of exercises along the border this week.

“The mission is clear,” said Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin, who leads Israel’s Northern Command. “We are determined to change the security landscape as quickly as possible.”

“New Phase” of the War

The military moves were accompanied by intense rhetoric from Israeli leaders who said their patience was running out.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced Wednesday evening the beginning of a “new phase” of the war, as Israel turns toward Hezbollah. “The center of gravity is shifting north, redirecting resources and forces,” he said.

He spoke a day after the Israeli government made returning displaced people to their homes in northern Israel a formal war goal. The move was largely symbolic — Israeli leaders have long pledged to bring those residents home. But the elevation of the goal signaled a tougher stance.

After meeting with top security officials on Wednesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared: “The people of the north will return safely to their homes.”

Netanyahu delivered an equally forceful message through his US envoy, who travelled to the region this week to ease tensions.

An official with knowledge of the incident told The Associated Press that envoy Amos Hochstein told Netanyahu that escalating the conflict with Hezbollah would not help evacuated Israelis return home.

Netanyahu, according to a statement from his office, told Hochstein that the residents could not return without a “fundamental change in the security situation in the north.” The statement said that while Netanyahu “appreciates and respects” the U.S. support, Israel “will do whatever is necessary to ensure its security.”

Is war inevitable?

Israeli media reported Wednesday that the government has not yet decided whether to launch a major offensive in Lebanon.

Much, it seems, will depend on Hezbollah’s response. The group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, is scheduled to deliver a major speech on Thursday.

However, public opinion in Israel appears to support stronger action against Hezbollah.

A poll conducted in late August by the Israeli Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem-based think tank, found that 67% of Jewish respondents believe Israel should step up its response to Hezbollah. This includes 46% of Jewish respondents who believe Israel should launch a deep offensive that hits Lebanese infrastructure, and 21% who want an intensified response that avoids hitting Hezbollah infrastructure.

“There is enormous pressure from society to go to war and win,” said Avivi, a retired general. “If Hezbollah doesn’t say tomorrow morning, ‘OK, we got the message. We’re withdrawing from southern Lebanon,’ then war is inevitable.”

Such a war would certainly prove devastating for both sides.

More than 500 people have been killed in Lebanon by Israeli attacks since October 8, most of them fighters from Hezbollah and other armed groups, but also more than 100 civilians. In northern Israel, at least 23 soldiers and 26 civilians have been killed by attacks from Lebanon.

Israel inflicted massive damage on Lebanon during a month-long war with Hezbollah in 2006 that ended in stalemate. This time, Israeli leaders have threatened even harsher action, promising to repeat the scenes of destruction in Gaza in Lebanon.

But Hezbollah has also expanded its capabilities since 2006. Hezbollah has an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles, some with guidance systems that can threaten sensitive targets in Israel. It has also developed an increasingly sophisticated fleet of drones.

With the ability to attack any region of Israel, Hezbollah could paralyze life in Israel and force hundreds of thousands of Israelis to flee.

Associated Press reporter Natalie Melzer in Jerusalem contributed to this report.