The B-21 Raider may have one major, fatal flaw

Summary and what you need to know: The U.S. Air Force is accelerating production of the B-21 Raider, a next-generation stealth bomber that will replace the B-2 Spirit. Faced with a high price tag of about $700 million per plane, the Air Force has moved orders to its Rapid Capabilities Office to streamline the process and cut costs.

-Although the goal is to acquire 300 B-21 aircraft, budget constraints make even 100 units an ambitious goal.

The Pentagon has approved small-scale initial production to demonstrate the bomber’s value to Congress. But challenges remain in mass-producing the aircraft cost-effectively and efficiently, raising concerns that the B-21 could face the same limitations as the B-2 fleet.

– Indeed, the price may turn out to be the B-21 Raider’s biggest drawback.

B-21 Raider: Can the Air Force Afford to Buy Another Stealth Bomber?

The United States Air Force is looking for a new long-range stealth bomber to replace its iconic B-2 Spirit stealth bomber. It has settled on the B-21 Raider, which made its public debut last winter at Edwards Air Force Base in California, home to the legendary (and mysterious) Lockheed Martin Skunkworks. But the Air Force faces a difficult situation.

The air services cannot afford such a high price, which is around $700 million. for the plane.

To streamline production, the Air Force didn’t use its regular purchasing office to acquire the innovative bomber. Instead, it handed the task of acquiring these unique birds over to the Air Force’s Rapid Capabilities Office, a bureaucracy designed to streamline the cumbersome purchasing process (a reasonable person might ask why, instead of creating bureaucracy to cut bureaucracy, the government wouldn’t simply cut the bureaucratic bloat in the Pentagon’s purchasing offices, but I digress).

The Air Force certainly wants 300 of these birds in its fleet, but says it will settle for 100. That’s still a high price. In addition to the test aircraft, the Air Force has built two additional B-21s for ground evaluation, proving its commitment to the platform.

And the Pentagon recently approved the B-21 for low-volume production. By conducting what’s known as “Low Rate Initial Production” (LRIP), the Air Force hopes to prove to a skeptical Congress just how useful the bird could be. The Pentagon has also streamlined the production process for these complex birds, which will hopefully lower the overall costs of the program in the long run.

Why is the Pentagon doing this?

The reason the Air Force is taking this streamlined approach to the B-21 is because it believes it really needs the bird when the time comes. The Pentagon is trying to prove to a reluctant Congress that they can actually make this a low-cost investment (unlike many other major programs the Air Force has built).

Unfortunately, this approach should have been applied to every major weapons platform the Air Force has tried to acquire over the past few decades. It hasn’t. So Congress, faced with voters who are angry about the country’s fiscal state, is increasingly reluctant to give the Air Force (or other branches, for that matter) more leeway.

Furthermore, there is no guarantee that the technological complexity of this bird will be mitigated through the use of the Air Force Rapid Capabilities Office.

In its simplest form, being able to reliably — and inexpensively — mass-produce enough B-21 Raiders to make them a worthwhile investment in the long term is clearly not the capacity of the U.S. defense industrial base to meet current demands, let alone the increased demands that come with a dynamic threat environment in which peer competitors constantly vie for military superiority over the United States. If these birds cannot be reliably mass-produced, they will never be worth the investment.

Where is the Air Force going?

Moreover, if past is indeed prologue, then the Air Force’s unfortunate experience with the B-2 Spirit long-range stealth bomber should have an impact on the outcome of the even more expensive B-21 Raider.

As with the B-21, the Air Force imagined it would have hundreds of B-2s. Thirty years later, it got 19—and now it’s running out. That’s because they were far too expensive for the Air Force. In the case of the B-21, the Pentagon will be lucky to get as many B-21s as it did with the B-2.

The lack of sufficient B-2s was one of the main reasons the Air Force wanted the B-21. Now it may not come close to having sufficient B-21s! The Air Force may have to start exploring radical alternatives to projecting long-range stealth capabilities beyond the B-21.

Author’s Experience and Knowledge: Brandon J. Weichert

Brandon J. Weichert, a national security analyst at the National Interest, is a former congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who has contributed to The Washington Times, Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is due out October 22 from Encounter Books. You can follow Weichert on Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

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